Do I ship it?

GamesSpectacle fighterSpectacle fighter + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + 4 Player Local

Only 11 developers shipped a 4 Player Local Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Diesel Legacy: The Brazen Age, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $600 against a market of $1.5k. 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 15 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $168 (exactly $168)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Top 5% $87k (exactly $86,956)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 37
Announced 15
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.60

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter, 4 Player Local
Price point
$5.60 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 90% positive over 245 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $170, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $86k.

3 in 10 developers made under $170. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DAVIGO: VR vs. PC · EA older $24.99 1,200 84% 36k $900k (exactly $899,640) Davigo Studio
Toasterball older $9.99 324 96% 9.7k $97k (exactly $97,103) Les Crafteurs
Diesel Legacy: The Brazen Age $19.99 145 91% 4.4k $87k (exactly $86,956) Maximum Entertainment
Mighty Fight Federation older $14.99 30 76% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) Komi Games Inc.
King's Blade $8.99 49 81% 1.5k $13k (exactly $13,215) Alexey Suslin
There Will Be Ink older $6.99 30 93% 900 $6.3k (exactly $6,291) Summit Fever
Go All Out older $9.99 18 61% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Blue Sunset Games
Spell Swap older $6.99 23 91% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) Teagher Studio
Double Turn older $4.99 19 47% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) Inwave Labs
女神試煉 Quest of Goddess $4.99 18 94% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) DNAXCAT CO., LTD.
MechaCap Arena $7.99 11 90% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Paraflux Games
KBF: Knight Bar Fight $3.99 13 100% 390 $1.6k (exactly $1,556) KBF Team
Bumper Brawlers $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Gyxos
SuperSerpentSnake3D $0.99 6 100% 180 $178 (exactly $178) HTNG Studio
Overball $5.60 1 100% 30 $168 (exactly $168) ArechGames
PunchBots $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Ghost Creative Studio
Brawlmageddon · EA $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) LUO BIN STUDIO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.