Do I ship it?

Games › Spectacle fighter › Spectacle fighter + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shoot 'Em Up Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Shoot 'Em Up

Only 10 developers shipped a Shoot 'Em Up Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ODDRooM, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×7.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $270 against a market of $1.5k. 23 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 23 announced, ×7.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $2.2k → $3.6k → $150 → $269
Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $6.2k (exactly $6,235)
Top 5% $12k (exactly $11,692)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 67
Announced 23
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter, Shoot 'Em Up
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 80% positive over 147 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $270, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $11k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HYPER DEMON 2022 · $1.4M DR LIVESEY ROM AND DEATH EDITION 2023 · $1.1M Astebreed: Definitive Edition 2014 · $763k Furry Killer 2022 · $217k Super Crush KO 2020 · $95k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HYPER DEMON older $14.99 3,087 94% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,388,224) Sorath
DR LIVESEY ROM AND DEATH EDITION older $2.99 12,437 94% 373k $1.1M (exactly $1,115,599) Agafonoff
Astebreed: Definitive Edition older $19.99 1,272 87% 38k $763k (exactly $762,818) Edelweiss
Furry Killer older $29.99 241 78% 7.2k $217k (exactly $216,828) Sujikon
Super Crush KO older $14.99 211 96% 6.3k $95k (exactly $94,887) Vertex Pop
KILL KILL KILL KILL older $29.99 94 89% 2.8k $85k (exactly $84,572) Galactic Geckon
Cyber Assasin older $29.99 89 88% 2.7k $80k (exactly $80,073) Galactic Geckon
Grab and Guts older $29.99 87 94% 2.6k $78k (exactly $78,274) Galactic Geckon
Wrong Bullet older $29.99 84 89% 2.5k $76k (exactly $75,575) Galactic Geckon
The Wraith of the Galaxy · EA older $11.99 161 81% 4.8k $58k (exactly $57,912) Whale Rock Games
ODDRooM $14.99 26 96% 780 $12k (exactly $11,692) TEAM ODD
Great Tough Bikini 6 $2.99 74 70% 2.2k $6.6k (exactly $6,638) nStarcube
No More Demon · EA $12.99 16 87% 480 $6.2k (exactly $6,235) Mundus Games
NUMANUIN $4.99 25 92% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) Siberian Mouse
Vampirates $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Abonneer
Tower Defense $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Taranau Aliaksei
Outlanders: Hunt and Survive $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) DIG Games
ShoJinDen $4.20 1 100% 30 $126 (exactly $126) EigetsuGames
Cute Techno Slayer $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Cristopher Rebellato Alexis
Base Defense $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Taranau Aliaksei

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.