Do I ship it?

GamesRTSRTS + Spectacle fighter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spectacle fighter RTS?

RTS + Spectacle fighter

Only 8 developers shipped a Spectacle fighter RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ERA ONE, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×15 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $6.2k against a market of $1.5k. 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 15 announced, ×15 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Spectacle fighter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $600 → $4.1M → $1.5k → $369k
Outcomes for RTS + Spectacle fighter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,544)
Median $6.2k (exactly $6,235)
Top 25% $369k (exactly $369,415)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 30
Announced 15
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 85% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Spectacle fighter
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 7,148 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.6k, median $6.2k, 1 in 4 over $360k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.6k. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×15 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
ERA ONE · EA $29.99 1,575 86% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028) Team Complex LTD
SpellForce 3 Fallen God older $19.99 1,335 86% 40k $801k (exactly $800,599) Grimlore Games
Ratten Reich $19.99 616 40% 18k $369k (exactly $369,415) METALLADLERSTUDIO
No Man's Land $6.99 80 87% 2.4k $17k (exactly $16,776) Related Designs Software
They Came From Below older $24.99 17 58% 510 $13k (exactly $12,745) Piece Of Voxel
Just Skill Shooter older $9.99 36 47% 1.1k $11k (exactly $10,789) Gamesforgames
Just skill shooter 2 older $9.99 32 53% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Gamesforgames
Fight till the End! older $19.99 15 66% 450 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Gamesforgames
Make War older $5.99 47 51% 1.4k $8.4k (exactly $8,446) Creepy Brothers
Grimstar: Crystals are the New Oil! $12.99 16 68% 480 $6.2k (exactly $6,235) SvenRahn Games
101st Airborne in Normandy $4.99 15 60% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) Interactive Simulations
MEMOLOGY: War of Memes $0.99 52 76% 1.6k $1.5k (exactly $1,544) Piece Of Voxel, Gamesforfarm, hannibaln… (Piece Of Voxel, Gamesforfarm, hannibalnotdead)
Sears: The Sky Frontier $5.99 3 33% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Acoma Games
Amitabha Buddha $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 阿弥陀佛

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.