Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Pinball

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pinball game?

Pinball

Of 94 developers who shipped a Pinball game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 112 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×4.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $450. Revenue is flat on the market; 112 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 112 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Pinball
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 94
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $921 → $748 → $1.8k → $9.9k → $600 → $1.8k → $1.3k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Pinball: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 94
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $2.0k (exactly $2,035)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,250)
Top 5% $133k (exactly $132,662)
Developers, 2 yr 94
Released games 248
Announced 112
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 210% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Pinball
effort 3 / 10 · medium · ball physics and table feel need tuning, not text logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Pinball
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 8,855 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 112 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Pinball

14 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Pinball + Platformer Strong odds $2.5k 10 devs
  2. Simulation + Pinball Fair $8.2k 27 devs
  3. Adventure + Pinball Fair $8.1k 11 devs
  4. Pinball + Fantasy Fair $2.9k 13 devs
  5. Action + Pinball Fair $2.6k 42 devs
  6. Physics + Pinball Fair $2.5k 62 devs
  7. 2D Platformer + Pinball Fair $1.6k 13 devs
  8. Arcade + Pinball Fair $1.2k 73 devs
  9. Pinball + Score Attack Fair $719 24 devs
  10. Sports + Pinball Fair $600 11 devs
  11. Strategy + Pinball Poor odds $8.2k 28 devs
  12. Pinball + Roguelike Poor odds $5.8k 22 devs
  13. Pinball + Roguelite Poor odds $4.6k 24 devs
  14. Pinball + Puzzle Poor odds $2.5k 9 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Peglin 2024 · $10M Yoku's Island Express 2018 · $1.9M Peggle Deluxe 2007 · $1.9M Fortune Mill 2026 · $890k Ballionaire 2024 · $888k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Peglin older $19.99 16,626 83% 499k $10M (exactly $9,970,612) Red Nexus Games Inc.
Yoku's Island Express older $19.99 3,220 96% 97k $1.9M (exactly $1,931,034) Villa Gorilla
Peggle Deluxe older $4.99 12,613 97% 378k $1.9M (exactly $1,888,166) PopCap Games, Inc.
Fortune Mill $7.99 3,712 81% 111k $890k (exactly $889,766) Lavaflame2
Ballionaire $12.34 2,398 85% 72k $888k (exactly $887,740) newobject
SENRAN KAGURA Peach Ball older $29.99 796 87% 24k $716k (exactly $716,161) Tamsoft
DEMON'S TILT older $19.99 962 94% 29k $577k (exactly $576,911) WIZNWAR, FLARB LLC
XENOTILT: HOSTILE PINBALL ACTION $19.99 770 96% 23k $462k (exactly $461,769) WIZNWAR, FLARB LLC
Racket: Nx older $19.99 493 95% 15k $296k (exactly $295,652) One Hamsa
Roundguard older $19.99 449 80% 13k $269k (exactly $269,265) Wonderbelly Games
Pinball Spire $14.99 410 84% 12k $184k (exactly $184,377) Apparition Games
Flick Shot Rogues $14.99 295 87% 8.9k $133k (exactly $132,662) Butter By The Fish
Cult of PiN $14.99 184 77% 5.5k $83k (exactly $82,745) KennyMakesGames
Plinbo: Roguelike Plinko $6.99 379 67% 11k $79k (exactly $79,476) Raphus & Co.
Pegfinity $6.99 347 76% 10k $73k (exactly $72,766) Fragment Ventures AS
Pinball Wicked $7.99 235 87% 7.1k $56k (exactly $56,330) Formslingers
Super Cabbage Kabumi $14.99 125 67% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) Vividesca Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.