Games › Physics › Physics + Pinball
Should I ship a Physics Pinball game?
Physics + Pinball
Of 62 developers who shipped a Physics Pinball game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 80 more are announced.
Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $600. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 80 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $600 (exactly $600) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.5k (exactly $2,516) |
| Top 25% | $19k (exactly $19,188) |
| Top 5% | $83k (exactly $82,745) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 62 |
| Released games | 133 |
| Announced | 80 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 245% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Pinball; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Arcade, Simulation, Strategy
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Relaxing
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 4,403 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 80 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + BasketballLong shot
Comparable games
Peglin 2024 · $10M 
Yoku's Island Express 2018 · $1.9M 
Peggle Deluxe 2007 · $1.9M 
Ballionaire 2024 · $888k 
Roundguard 2020 · $269k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Peglin | older | $19.99 | 16,626 83% | 499k | $10M (exactly $9,970,612) | Red Nexus Games Inc. |
| | Yoku's Island Express | older | $19.99 | 3,220 96% | 97k | $1.9M (exactly $1,931,034) | Villa Gorilla |
| | Peggle Deluxe | older | $4.99 | 12,613 97% | 378k | $1.9M (exactly $1,888,166) | PopCap Games, Inc. |
| | Ballionaire | $12.34 | 2,398 85% | 72k | $888k (exactly $887,740) | newobject | |
| | Roundguard | older | $19.99 | 449 80% | 13k | $269k (exactly $269,265) | Wonderbelly Games |
 | Pinball Spire | $14.99 | 410 84% | 12k | $184k (exactly $184,377) | Apparition Games | |
 | Pinball FX Classic VR | older | $14.99 | 376 84% | 11k | $169k (exactly $169,087) | Zen Studios |
 | Zombie Rollerz: Pinball Heroes | older | $14.99 | 308 83% | 9.2k | $139k (exactly $138,508) | Zing Games Inc. |
 | Star Wars™ Pinball VR | older | $24.99 | 180 41% | 5.4k | $135k (exactly $134,946) | Zen Studios |
 | Flick Shot Rogues | $14.99 | 295 87% | 8.9k | $133k (exactly $132,662) | Butter By The Fish | |
 | Cult of PiN | $14.99 | 184 77% | 5.5k | $83k (exactly $82,745) | KennyMakesGames | |
 | Pegfinity | $6.99 | 347 76% | 10k | $73k (exactly $72,766) | Fragment Ventures AS | |
 | Pinball Wicked | $7.99 | 235 87% | 7.1k | $56k (exactly $56,330) | Formslingers | |
 | Infected Mushroom Pinball | · EA | $19.99 | 83 68% | 2.5k | $50k (exactly $49,775) | RAYWORKS |
 | Idle Gumball Machine | $4.99 | 255 90% | 7.7k | $38k (exactly $38,174) | Antique Gear Games | |
 | ploink | $12.99 | 91 96% | 2.7k | $35k (exactly $35,463) | Pyrocreep | |
 | Cozy Marbles | $9.99 | 105 96% | 3.2k | $31k (exactly $31,468) | Pixel Pea Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.