Do I ship it?

GamesPinballPinball + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Pinball game?

Pinball + Fantasy

Only 13 developers shipped a Fantasy Pinball game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Fortune Mill, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×6.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $1.2k. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 20 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.1 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 20 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Pinball + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Pinball + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,878)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $30,130)
Top 5% $890k (exactly $889,766)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 32
Announced 20
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 1100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Pinball
effort 3 / 10 · medium · ball physics and table feel need tuning, not text logic
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Pinball
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 4,114 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $880k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 20 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Pinball with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PlatformerStrong odds10 devs · median $2.5k · 6 announced
  2. + SimulationFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  3. + AdventureFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + ActionFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  5. + PhysicsFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  6. + 2D PlatformerFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 9 announced
  7. + ArcadeFair73 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  8. + Score AttackFair24 devs · median $719 · 34 announced
  9. + SportsFair11 devs · median $600 · 7 announced
  10. + StrategyPoor odds28 devs · median $8.2k · 58 announced
  11. + RoguelikePoor odds22 devs · median $5.8k · 56 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds24 devs · median $4.6k · 59 announced

All 13 pairs on the Pinball page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Peglin older $19.99 16,626 83% 499k $10M (exactly $9,970,612) Red Nexus Games Inc.
Fortune Mill $7.99 3,712 81% 111k $890k (exactly $889,766) Lavaflame2
DEMON'S TILT older $19.99 962 94% 29k $577k (exactly $576,911) WIZNWAR, FLARB LLC
Rollers of the Realm older $9.99 375 90% 11k $112k (exactly $112,388) Phantom Compass
Super Cabbage Kabumi $14.99 125 67% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) Vividesca Games
Witcheye older $4.99 233 87% 7.0k $35k (exactly $34,880) Moon Kid
Ricochet Abyss · EA $12.99 78 75% 2.3k $30k (exactly $30,397) DreamForge
Beast Breaker $14.99 67 95% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) Vodeo Games, Huey Games
Runix: Pinball Roguelike $15.99 40 87% 1.2k $19k (exactly $19,188) Meteor Forge
The Pinball Wizard older $7.99 56 67% 1.7k $13k (exactly $13,423) Frosty Pop
MONUMENTUM $3.99 63 95% 1.9k $7.5k (exactly $7,541) Jakob Scott
Knights of the Round Peg $11.99 8 62% 240 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) Boomzap Inc
FlipScapes $16.99 5 80% 150 $2.5k (exactly $2,548) OmniScapes Interactive
Pinfall $6.99 12 83% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) PIXELNASU
Porn Pinball $9.99 4 0% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Samejima

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.