Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Pinball

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pinball Strategy game?

Strategy + Pinball

Of 28 developers who shipped a Pinball Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.2k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×211 the market median. Revenue is up 415% on the market; 58 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 415% on the market, 58 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Pinball
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.8k → $8.2k (still earning) → $9.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Pinball: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,274)
Median $8.2k (exactly $8,234)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,463)
Top 5% $133k (exactly $132,662)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 38
Announced 58
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 415% on the market, supply 735% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Pinball
effort 3 / 10 · medium · ball physics and table feel need tuning, not text logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Pinball; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Arcade, Deckbuilding
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 3,954 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.3k, median $8.2k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.3k. 58 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Peglin older $19.99 16,626 83% 499k $10M (exactly $9,970,612) Red Nexus Games Inc.
Peggle Deluxe older $4.99 12,613 97% 378k $1.9M (exactly $1,888,166) PopCap Games, Inc.
Ballionaire $12.34 2,398 85% 72k $888k (exactly $887,740) newobject
Flick Shot Rogues $14.99 295 87% 8.9k $133k (exactly $132,662) Butter By The Fish
Cult of PiN $14.99 184 77% 5.5k $83k (exactly $82,745) KennyMakesGames
Plinbo: Roguelike Plinko $6.99 379 67% 11k $79k (exactly $79,476) Raphus & Co.
Super Cabbage Kabumi $14.99 125 67% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) Vividesca Games
Idle Gumball Machine $4.99 255 90% 7.7k $38k (exactly $38,174) Antique Gear Games
ploink $12.99 91 96% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,463) Pyrocreep
Ricochet Abyss · EA $12.99 78 75% 2.3k $30k (exactly $30,397) DreamForge
Beast Breaker $14.99 67 95% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) Vodeo Games, Huey Games
Ballatory $7.99 82 78% 2.5k $20k (exactly $19,655) Mini Fun Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.