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Should I ship a Pinball Simulation game?
Simulation + Pinball
Of 27 developers who shipped a Pinball Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.
Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $8.2k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $630. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 28 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $628 (exactly $628) |
|---|---|
| Median | $8.2k (exactly $8,234) |
| Top 25% | $50k (exactly $49,775) |
| Top 5% | $888k (exactly $887,740) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 27 |
| Released games | 91 |
| Announced | 28 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.66 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Pinball
- effort 3 / 10 · medium · ball physics and table feel need tuning, not text logic
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation, Pinball; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Arcade, Physics, Deckbuilding
- Price point
- $6.66 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Pixel Graphics
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.66.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 7,852 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
Comparable games
Fortune Mill 2026 · $890k 
Ballionaire 2024 · $888k 
Racket: Nx 2018 · $296k 
少女妖精弹珠台 Elf Girl Pinball 2022 · $241k 
Pinball Spire 2024 · $184k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Fortune Mill | $7.99 | 3,712 81% | 111k | $890k (exactly $889,766) | Lavaflame2 | |
| | Ballionaire | $12.34 | 2,398 85% | 72k | $888k (exactly $887,740) | newobject | |
| | Racket: Nx | older | $19.99 | 493 95% | 15k | $296k (exactly $295,652) | One Hamsa |
| | 少女妖精弹珠台 Elf Girl Pinball | older | $9.99 | 804 92% | 24k | $241k (exactly $240,959) | OWENO |
| | Pinball Spire | $14.99 | 410 84% | 12k | $184k (exactly $184,377) | Apparition Games | |
 | Pinball FX Classic VR | older | $14.99 | 376 84% | 11k | $169k (exactly $169,087) | Zen Studios |
 | Zombie Rollerz: Pinball Heroes | older | $14.99 | 308 83% | 9.2k | $139k (exactly $138,508) | Zing Games Inc. |
 | Star Wars™ Pinball VR | older | $24.99 | 180 41% | 5.4k | $135k (exactly $134,946) | Zen Studios |
 | Pro Pinball Ultra | older | $14.99 | 286 81% | 8.6k | $129k (exactly $128,614) | Barnstorm Games |
 | Dream Pinball 3D | older | $9.99 | 363 30% | 11k | $109k (exactly $108,791) | ASK Homework |
 | Cult of PiN | $14.99 | 184 77% | 5.5k | $83k (exactly $82,745) | KennyMakesGames | |
 | Plinbo: Roguelike Plinko | $6.99 | 379 67% | 11k | $79k (exactly $79,476) | Raphus & Co. | |
 | Pinball Wicked | $7.99 | 235 87% | 7.1k | $56k (exactly $56,330) | Formslingers | |
 | Infected Mushroom Pinball | · EA | $19.99 | 83 68% | 2.5k | $50k (exactly $49,775) | RAYWORKS |
 | Idle Gumball Machine | $4.99 | 255 90% | 7.7k | $38k (exactly $38,174) | Antique Gear Games | |
 | ploink | $12.99 | 91 96% | 2.7k | $35k (exactly $35,463) | Pyrocreep | |
 | Cozy Marbles | $9.99 | 105 96% | 3.2k | $31k (exactly $31,468) | Pixel Pea Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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