Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Pinball

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pinball Sports game?

Sports + Pinball

Only 11 developers shipped a Pinball Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Pimbolas, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is up 185% on the market; 7 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 185% on the market, 7 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Pinball
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $269 → $2.9k → $958 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Pinball: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $600 (exactly $600)
Top 25% $9.9k (exactly $9,893)
Top 5% $27k (exactly $26,673)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 43
Announced 7
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 185% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Pinball
effort 3 / 10 · medium · ball physics and table feel need tuning, not text logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Pinball
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 93% positive over 176 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $9.8k, 1 in 20 over $26k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Racket: Nx older $19.99 493 95% 15k $296k (exactly $295,652) One Hamsa
Pinball FX Classic VR older $14.99 376 84% 11k $169k (exactly $169,087) Zen Studios
Kabounce older $14.99 168 89% 5.0k $76k (exactly $75,550) Stitch Heads Entertainment
Worms Pinball older $7.99 217 67% 6.5k $52k (exactly $52,015) Team17 Digital Ltd
Pimbolas $9.99 89 94% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,673) Nano Knight Studio
Racket Pinball $19.99 37 91% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) NiVision
Only Pinball · EA $14.99 22 100% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) Malzbie Games
Slot Shots Pinball Collection older $9.99 24 95% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Pinblend Studios
Golf Pool VR older $9.99 19 63% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) LastnOni
Roxy Raccoon 2: Topsy-Turvy older $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Sinomod Studios
TENNISTRONIC · EA $6.99 14 100% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Gametheus
Stellar Golf $3.99 8 100% 240 $958 (exactly $958) Fort Chuck Entertainment
Pinball Jam $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Super PowerUp Games
Pachinko Swamp $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Trollix Games
Pinbowling $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Outstanding Duck
Pinball Simulator · EA $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Hard Shark Games
Space Pinball $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 3ichael 7ambert, Rameez, Matt Mateo VII… (3ichael 7ambert, Rameez, Matt Mateo VII, Rayu Johnson)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.