Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Pinball

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pinball Action game?

Action + Pinball

Of 42 developers who shipped a Pinball Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×4.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $600. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 48 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 48 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Pinball
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $2.4k → $1.8k → $3.3k → $2.9k → $898 → $2.5k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Pinball: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,092)
Top 5% $83k (exactly $82,745)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 102
Announced 48
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Pinball
effort 3 / 10 · medium · ball physics and table feel need tuning, not text logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action, Pinball; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Arcade, Physics, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Retro, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,710 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $82k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  5. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  6. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  7. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  8. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  9. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  10. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  11. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds108 devs · median $71k · 261 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DEMON'S TILT older $19.99 962 94% 29k $577k (exactly $576,911) WIZNWAR, FLARB LLC
XENOTILT: HOSTILE PINBALL ACTION $19.99 770 96% 23k $462k (exactly $461,769) WIZNWAR, FLARB LLC
Go Mecha Ball older $19.99 371 85% 11k $222k (exactly $222,489) Whale Peak Games
Pinball Spire $14.99 410 84% 12k $184k (exactly $184,377) Apparition Games
Zombie Rollerz: Pinball Heroes older $14.99 308 83% 9.2k $139k (exactly $138,508) Zing Games Inc.
Creature in the Well older $14.99 289 76% 8.7k $130k (exactly $129,963) Flight School Studio, MWM Interactive
Rollers of the Realm older $9.99 375 90% 11k $112k (exactly $112,388) Phantom Compass
Cult of PiN $14.99 184 77% 5.5k $83k (exactly $82,745) KennyMakesGames
Kabounce older $14.99 168 89% 5.0k $76k (exactly $75,550) Stitch Heads Entertainment
Death's Hangover older $4.99 420 88% 13k $63k (exactly $62,874) Retro Army Limited
FlippUp $9.99 76 84% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) Try Again Entertainment
Racket Pinball $19.99 37 91% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) NiVision
Ballatory $7.99 82 78% 2.5k $20k (exactly $19,655) Mini Fun Games
Runix: Pinball Roguelike $15.99 40 87% 1.2k $19k (exactly $19,188) Meteor Forge
Caromble! $12.99 34 73% 1.0k $13k (exactly $13,250) Crimson Owl Studios
Only Pinball · EA $14.99 22 100% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) Malzbie Games
Resultare $4.99 55 90% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) Good Day Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.