Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Otome

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Otome?

Otome

Of 171 developers who shipped an Otome in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 295 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.2k, ×44 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×1325 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 295 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 44.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 295 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Otome
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 171
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $18k → $15k → $4.8k → $5.7k → $5.6k → $6.9k → $2.7k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Otome: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 171
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,619)
Median $5.2k (exactly $5,242)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,093)
Top 5% $158k (exactly $157,721)
Developers, 2 yr 171
Released games 687
Announced 295
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Otome
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 19,817 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $5.2k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 8 in 10 of the 101 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 295 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Otome

14 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Otome + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $9.9k 45 devs
  2. Otome + Mystery Poor odds $5.8k 32 devs
  3. Otome + Female Protagonist Poor odds $5.8k 117 devs
  4. Otome + Romance Poor odds $5.7k 130 devs
  5. Otome + Supernatural Poor odds $5.7k 7 devs
  6. Otome + Fantasy Poor odds $5.6k 39 devs
  7. Otome + Magic Poor odds $5.6k 15 devs
  8. Otome + Historical Poor odds $5.1k 13 devs
  9. Otome + Psychological Horror Poor odds $4.7k 20 devs
  10. Otome + Horror Poor odds $4.7k 15 devs
  11. Otome + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.6k 17 devs
  12. Otome + Modern Poor odds $2.7k 11 devs
  13. Otome + Medieval Dead $6.5k 7 devs
  14. Otome + Sci-fi Dead $3.1k 5 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Homicipher 2024 · $3.3M DRAMAtical Murder 2021 · $2.8M Hatoful Boyfriend 2014 · $1.7M Ken ga Kimi 2020 · $1.6M 私のリアルは充実しすぎている フルボイス版 2022 · $1.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Homicipher $13.99 7,821 96% 235k $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) 八名木Games
DRAMAtical Murder older $19.99 4,640 96% 139k $2.8M (exactly $2,782,608) Nitro+CHiRAL
Hatoful Boyfriend older $9.99 5,533 94% 166k $1.7M (exactly $1,658,240) Mediatonic, Hato Moa
Ken ga Kimi older $49.99 1,065 93% 32k $1.6M (exactly $1,597,180) Rejet
私のリアルは充実しすぎている フルボイス版 older $9.99 5,322 96% 160k $1.6M (exactly $1,595,003) TetraScope
月华辉映之刻 $11.99 4,227 89% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) 侠客狗工作室
BUSTAFELLOWS older $39.99 968 86% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,161,310) NIPPON CULTURAL BROADCASTING EXTEND INC.
My Vow to My Liege older $9.99 3,844 91% 115k $1.2M (exactly $1,152,047) YETU GAME
Amnesia™: Memories older $9.99 3,721 92% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,115,184) Idea Factory, Design Factory
灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 $9.99 3,682 90% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) 莓夜工作室
Sensei! I Like You So Much! $16.99 1,304 86% 39k $665k (exactly $664,649) LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network… (LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network Technology Co. LTD）)
Meiji Tokyo Renka Full Moon $59.99 196 91% 5.9k $353k (exactly $352,741) dramatic create
我的恋爱逃生攻略 Love to Live $9.99 864 85% 26k $259k (exactly $258,941) 番茄炖肉制作组
Heart Cage $20.99 363 97% 11k $229k (exactly $228,581) RiceLoveCoffee
INtLOVErt Game Club $39.99 186 96% 5.6k $223k (exactly $223,144) じょせふ
Touhou Blooming Soul · EA $5.99 911 96% 27k $164k (exactly $163,707) 二色幽紫蝶
The Ethereal Dream $19.99 263 74% 7.9k $158k (exactly $157,721) 鸭子与葱制作组

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.