Do I ship it?

GamesOtomeOtome + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Otome?

Otome + Psychological Horror

Of 20 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Otome in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.7k, ×9.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×295 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 33 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 33 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Otome + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $26k → $30k → $25k → $719 → $6.7k → $4.0k (still earning) → $8.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Otome + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $959 (exactly $959)
Median $4.7k (exactly $4,680)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,251)
Top 5% $140k (exactly $140,220)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 63
Announced 33
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Otome; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Multiple Endings, Dating Sim, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 1,376 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $4.7k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Otome with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  2. + 2D PlatformerFair21 devs · median $420 · 28 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds24 devs · median $11k · 30 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds45 devs · median $9.9k · 93 announced
  5. + Dating SimPoor odds110 devs · median $7.8k · 192 announced
  6. + Interactive FictionPoor odds71 devs · median $7.8k · 126 announced
  7. + Character CustomizationPoor odds16 devs · median $7.5k · 39 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds69 devs · median $7.2k · 120 announced
  9. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds65 devs · median $6.5k · 118 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds58 devs · median $6.5k · 121 announced
  11. + Word GamePoor odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 34 announced
  12. + MysteryPoor odds32 devs · median $5.8k · 65 announced

All 32 pairs on the Otome page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DRAMAtical Murder older $19.99 4,640 96% 139k $2.8M (exactly $2,782,608) Nitro+CHiRAL
Amnesia™: Memories older $9.99 3,721 92% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,115,184) Idea Factory, Design Factory
Dandelion - Wishes brought to you - older $29.99 640 85% 19k $576k (exactly $575,808) Sujin Ri, Marcos Arroyo, Seona Lee, Som… (Sujin Ri, Marcos Arroyo, Seona Lee, Somi Lee, Sohyeon Jeon)
Nameless ~The one thing you must recall~ older $29.99 633 92% 19k $570k (exactly $569,510) Sujin Ri, Yunjeong Yun, Hyein Go, Minsu… (Sujin Ri, Yunjeong Yun, Hyein Go, Minsu Ock, Marcos Arroyo, Seona Lee, Sohyeon Jeon)
Folie Fatale older $5.99 2,608 86% 78k $469k (exactly $468,658) Kanmidoko (神海処)
TAISHO x ALICE episode 2 older $16.99 672 86% 20k $343k (exactly $342,518) Primula
From Madness with Love older $16.99 455 89% 14k $232k (exactly $231,913) Jamsanpoid, VampireK.K.
TAISHO x ALICE episode 3 older $16.99 428 90% 13k $218k (exactly $218,152) Primula
暴杀残雨之夜 $6.00 779 98% 23k $140k (exactly $140,220) 茶斩刀制作组
Ladykiller in a Bind older $19.99 202 92% 6.1k $121k (exactly $121,139) Love Conquers All Games
Demonheart: The Cursed Trial $24.99 115 90% 3.5k $86k (exactly $86,216) Rolling Crown
Guardian of the Sacred Seal $19.99 123 96% 3.7k $74k (exactly $73,763) STUDIO SPUTNIK
Veloria $14.99 100 89% 3.0k $45k (exactly $44,970) WANDERING WITCH PROIECTUM
Lover's Enigma $11.99 98 87% 2.9k $35k (exactly $35,251) FallenCranberry Studio
Teachers. With Love and Passion. $11.99 33 90% 990 $12k (exactly $11,870) Honey Bunny Studio
Novel Forger: Suicide Mr. Fury $7.99 34 100% 1.0k $8.2k (exactly $8,150) KK Narratif
1000 Princes: Born to Love You $4.99 45 80% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) 琴研 Ginyan
Metamorph $4.99 36 91% 1.1k $5.4k (exactly $5,389) Jackdaw Games
Darling, Darling... Dead? $12.00 13 100% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,680) Chthonic Chrome Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.