Do I ship it?

Games › Otome › Otome + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Otome?

Otome + Female Protagonist

Of 117 developers who shipped a Female-Led Otome in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 199 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×12 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×481 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 199 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 199 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Otome + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 117
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $26k → $24k → $3.6k → $9.0k → $5.8k → $4.6k → $5.1k (still earning) → $7.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Otome + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 117
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,887)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,753)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,251)
Top 5% $229k (exactly $228,581)
Developers, 2 yr 117
Released games 511
Announced 199
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Otome; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Dating Sim, Multiple Endings
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 19,196 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.9k, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.9k. 8 in 10 of the 73 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 199 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Otome with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  2. + 2D PlatformerFair21 devs · median $420 · 28 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds24 devs · median $11k · 30 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds45 devs · median $9.9k · 93 announced
  5. + Dating SimPoor odds110 devs · median $7.8k · 192 announced
  6. + Interactive FictionPoor odds71 devs · median $7.8k · 126 announced
  7. + Character CustomizationPoor odds16 devs · median $7.5k · 39 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds69 devs · median $7.2k · 120 announced
  9. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds65 devs · median $6.5k · 118 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds58 devs · median $6.5k · 121 announced
  11. + Word GamePoor odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 34 announced
  12. + MysteryPoor odds32 devs · median $5.8k · 65 announced

All 32 pairs on the Otome page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Homicipher 2024 · $3.3M Hatoful Boyfriend 2014 · $1.7M Ken ga Kimi 2020 · $1.6M 私のリアルは充実しすぎている フルボイス版 2022 · $1.6M 月华辉映之刻 2025 · $1.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Homicipher $13.99 7,821 96% 235k $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) 八名木Games
Hatoful Boyfriend older $9.99 5,533 94% 166k $1.7M (exactly $1,658,240) Mediatonic, Hato Moa
Ken ga Kimi older $49.99 1,065 93% 32k $1.6M (exactly $1,597,180) Rejet
私のリアルは充実しすぎている フルボイス版 older $9.99 5,322 96% 160k $1.6M (exactly $1,595,003) TetraScope
月华辉映之刻 $11.99 4,227 89% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) 侠客狗工作室
BUSTAFELLOWS older $39.99 968 86% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,161,310) NIPPON CULTURAL BROADCASTING EXTEND INC.
My Vow to My Liege older $9.99 3,844 91% 115k $1.2M (exactly $1,152,047) YETU GAME
Amnesia™: Memories older $9.99 3,721 92% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,115,184) Idea Factory, Design Factory
灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 $9.99 3,682 90% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) 莓夜工作室
Nightshade/百花百狼 older $34.99 717 95% 22k $753k (exactly $752,635) Red Entertainment, LANTERN ROOMS
Sensei! I Like You So Much! $16.99 1,304 86% 39k $665k (exactly $664,649) LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network… (LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network Technology Co. LTD）)
Meiji Tokyo Renka Full Moon $59.99 196 91% 5.9k $353k (exactly $352,741) dramatic create
我的恋爱逃生攻略 Love to Live $9.99 864 85% 26k $259k (exactly $258,941) 番茄炖肉制作组
Heart Cage $20.99 363 97% 11k $229k (exactly $228,581) RiceLoveCoffee
INtLOVErt Game Club $39.99 186 96% 5.6k $223k (exactly $223,144) じょせふ
The Ethereal Dream $19.99 263 74% 7.9k $158k (exactly $157,721) 鸭子与葱制作组
The Silent Kingdom · EA $17.99 290 99% 8.7k $157k (exactly $156,513) Lucky Cat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.