Do I ship it?

GamesOtomeOtome + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Otome?

Otome + Medieval

Only 7 developers shipped a Medieval Otome in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Ethereal Dream, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $6.5k against a market of $480. 12 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 13.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 230% on the market, 12 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Otome + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.5k → $14k → $5.4k
Outcomes for Otome + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $5.4k (exactly $5,398)
Median $6.5k (exactly $6,472)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,343)
Top 5% $158k (exactly $157,721)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 25
Announced 12
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 230% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Otome
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 1,040 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.4k, median $6.5k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.4k. 12 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Otome with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  2. + 2D PlatformerFair21 devs · median $420 · 28 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds24 devs · median $11k · 30 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds45 devs · median $9.9k · 93 announced
  5. + Dating SimPoor odds110 devs · median $7.8k · 192 announced
  6. + Interactive FictionPoor odds71 devs · median $7.8k · 126 announced
  7. + Character CustomizationPoor odds16 devs · median $7.5k · 39 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds69 devs · median $7.2k · 120 announced
  9. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds65 devs · median $6.5k · 118 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds58 devs · median $6.5k · 121 announced
  11. + Word GamePoor odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 34 announced
  12. + MysteryPoor odds32 devs · median $5.8k · 65 announced

All 32 pairs on the Otome page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Ethereal Dream $19.99 263 74% 7.9k $158k (exactly $157,721) 鸭子与葱制作组
Palais de Reine older $29.99 123 86% 3.7k $111k (exactly $110,663) KOGADO STUDIO
Royal Order older $29.99 114 91% 3.4k $103k (exactly $102,566) Nifty Visuals
Valhalla:Awakening of Valkyrie older $7.99 268 36% 8.0k $64k (exactly $64,240) Fantasy Game
Errant Kingdom older $13.99 109 64% 3.3k $46k (exactly $45,747) Lunaris Games
Made Marion · EA older $29.99 44 93% 1.3k $40k (exactly $39,587) Velvet Cupcake Games
Dragon Essence - Color My World - older $19.99 28 67% 840 $17k (exactly $16,792) Zeiva Inc
Breathless Winds - LGBT Visual Novel older $11.99 38 97% 1.1k $14k (exactly $13,669) ForeverFuture Games
Your Story older $14.99 30 66% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) GameLoad
Jezebel · EA $14.99 23 100% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Pengo Productions
Love & Legends $29.99 11 90% 330 $9.9k (exactly $9,897) UNICO INC.
Love the Guard, Be the King - A Visual Novel $7.99 27 100% 810 $6.5k (exactly $6,472) Ligia Nunes
The Garden of the Gods $29.99 6 66% 180 $5.4k (exactly $5,398) KUMOHA Holdings Inc.
魔女之塔 Witch's Tower $4.99 11 45% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Bi Shenghui
Queen Ant Perfume -The Mad Love of Jack the Ripper- $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) WabiSabi Project

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.