Do I ship it?

GamesOtomeOtome + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Otome?

Otome + Fantasy

Of 39 developers who shipped a Fantasy Otome in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 85 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.6k, ×12 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×313 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 85 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 85 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Otome + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $15k → $3.6k → $12k → $5.8k → $1.6k → $5.1k (still earning) → $7.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Otome + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $1.7k (exactly $1,704)
Median $5.6k (exactly $5,607)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,581)
Top 5% $148k (exactly $148,450)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 195
Announced 85
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Otome; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Multiple Endings, Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 4,669 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $5.6k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 9 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 85 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Otome with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  2. + 2D PlatformerFair21 devs · median $420 · 28 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds24 devs · median $11k · 30 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds45 devs · median $9.9k · 93 announced
  5. + Dating SimPoor odds110 devs · median $7.8k · 192 announced
  6. + Interactive FictionPoor odds71 devs · median $7.8k · 126 announced
  7. + Character CustomizationPoor odds16 devs · median $7.5k · 39 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds69 devs · median $7.2k · 120 announced
  9. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds65 devs · median $6.5k · 118 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds58 devs · median $6.5k · 121 announced
  11. + Word GamePoor odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 34 announced
  12. + MysteryPoor odds32 devs · median $5.8k · 65 announced

All 32 pairs on the Otome page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 $9.99 3,682 90% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) 莓夜工作室
7'scarlet older $29.99 796 74% 24k $716k (exactly $716,161) IDEA FACTORY, TOYBOX
TAISHO x ALICE episode 1 older $16.99 1,299 85% 39k $662k (exactly $662,100) Primula
OZMAFIA!! older $34.99 608 80% 18k $638k (exactly $638,218) Poni-Pachet SY
Hustle Cat older $19.99 1,023 94% 31k $613k (exactly $613,493) Date Nighto
Dandelion - Wishes brought to you - older $29.99 640 85% 19k $576k (exactly $575,808) Sujin Ri, Marcos Arroyo, Seona Lee, Som… (Sujin Ri, Marcos Arroyo, Seona Lee, Somi Lee, Sohyeon Jeon)
Psychedelica of the Ashen Hawk older $29.99 600 84% 18k $540k (exactly $539,820) IDEA FACTORY
Demonheart older $19.99 714 89% 21k $428k (exactly $428,186) Rolling Crown
Ten Trials of Babel: The Doppelganger Maze older $2.99 4,312 92% 129k $387k (exactly $386,786) 红渊
Arcadia Fallen older $24.99 504 94% 15k $378k (exactly $377,849) Galdra Studios
Arcadia Fallen II $29.99 165 98% 5.0k $148k (exactly $148,450) Galdra Studios
Mythic Love: Iberian Legends $12.99 251 92% 7.5k $98k (exactly $97,815) Platonic Games
Sigh of the Abyss $17.99 164 96% 4.9k $89k (exactly $88,511) Rascal Devworks
The World Well: Blood of Caro $11.99 205 85% 6.2k $74k (exactly $73,738) Nimparth
Genso Manège $39.99 28 82% 840 $34k (exactly $33,592) MAGES. Inc.
Alaris $11.99 74 98% 2.2k $27k (exactly $26,618) Crescence Studio
Steam Prison -Beyond the Steam- $34.99 22 50% 660 $23k (exactly $23,093) HuneX
The Villainess Is Adored by the Prince of the Neighbor Kingdom $39.99 16 56% 480 $19k (exactly $19,195) OPERAHOUSE
香恋Ready! $9.99 62 87% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,581) 芙气满满制作组

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.