Do I ship it?

GamesOtomeOtome + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Otome?

Otome + Sci-fi

Only 5 developers shipped a Sci-fi Otome in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SIGILLVM: RESONANCE, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $3.1k against a market of $480. 16 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 6.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 16 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Otome + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Otome + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $2.6k (exactly $2,601)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,112)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,492)
Top 5% $12k (exactly $11,988)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 27
Announced 16
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Otome
Price point
$3.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 899 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $11k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 16 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Otome with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  2. + 2D PlatformerFair21 devs · median $420 · 28 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds24 devs · median $11k · 30 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds45 devs · median $9.9k · 93 announced
  5. + Dating SimPoor odds110 devs · median $7.8k · 192 announced
  6. + Interactive FictionPoor odds71 devs · median $7.8k · 126 announced
  7. + Character CustomizationPoor odds16 devs · median $7.5k · 39 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds69 devs · median $7.2k · 120 announced
  9. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds65 devs · median $6.5k · 118 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds58 devs · median $6.5k · 121 announced
  11. + Word GamePoor odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 34 announced
  12. + MysteryPoor odds32 devs · median $5.8k · 65 announced

All 32 pairs on the Otome page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gilded Shadows older $29.99 162 93% 4.9k $146k (exactly $145,751) Steamberry Studio
Synthetic Lover older $24.99 97 85% 2.9k $73k (exactly $72,721) HeartCoreDev
Cardinal Cross older $11.99 175 94% 5.3k $63k (exactly $62,948) LarkyLabs
Apex Heroines older $19.99 91 87% 2.7k $55k (exactly $54,573) XIAOXIAO STUDIO
Date Warp older $9.99 159 88% 4.8k $48k (exactly $47,652) Hanako Games
长明火计划 Project: Eternal Flame older $19.99 77 88% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) 唐扬Studio
Planet Stronghold older $18.99 50 72% 1.5k $28k (exactly $28,485) Winter Wolves
Area-X older $24.99 27 100% 810 $20k (exactly $20,242) Zeiva Inc
Belle Automata: Chronicle I older $19.99 24 100% 720 $14k (exactly $14,393) Jellyfish Parade
</reality> older $11.99 37 86% 1.1k $13k (exactly $13,309) Fancy Fish Games
SIGILLVM: RESONANCE $9.99 40 97% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,988) Levistok
Love at The Milky Way Diner · EA $13.99 25 100% 750 $10k (exactly $10,492) Lucky Kim, Emanuelle Heikens
迷雾岛屿:9号万能试剂 $3.99 26 96% 780 $3.1k (exactly $3,112) Bio.no.187
Maid Mech $2.99 29 96% 870 $2.6k (exactly $2,601) Dark Arrow Studio
The Automaton of Second London $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Drone Garden Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.