Do I ship it?

GamesOtomeOtome + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Otome?

Otome + Supernatural

Only 7 developers shipped a Supernatural Otome in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mythic Love: Iberian Legends, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.7k, ×12 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $97k, ×206 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 26 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 26 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Otome + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $38k → $1.7k → $17k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Otome + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $5.7k (exactly $5,664)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,251)
Top 5% $98k (exactly $97,815)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 31
Announced 26
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 500% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Otome
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 2,108 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $5.7k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $97k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 26 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Otome with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  2. + 2D PlatformerFair21 devs · median $420 · 28 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds24 devs · median $11k · 30 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds45 devs · median $9.9k · 93 announced
  5. + Dating SimPoor odds110 devs · median $7.8k · 192 announced
  6. + Interactive FictionPoor odds71 devs · median $7.8k · 126 announced
  7. + Character CustomizationPoor odds16 devs · median $7.5k · 39 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds69 devs · median $7.2k · 120 announced
  9. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds65 devs · median $6.5k · 118 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds58 devs · median $6.5k · 121 announced
  11. + Word GamePoor odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 34 announced
  12. + MysteryPoor odds32 devs · median $5.8k · 65 announced

All 32 pairs on the Otome page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
7'scarlet older $29.99 796 74% 24k $716k (exactly $716,161) IDEA FACTORY, TOYBOX
EPHEMERAL -FANTASY ON DARK- older $39.99 173 87% 5.2k $208k (exactly $207,548) dramatic create
Love Spell: Written In The Stars - a magical romantic-comedy otome older $18.99 201 94% 6.0k $115k (exactly $114,510) Great Gretuski Studios
When The Night Comes older $12.99 289 92% 8.7k $113k (exactly $112,623) Lunaris Games
Mythic Love: Iberian Legends $12.99 251 92% 7.5k $98k (exactly $97,815) Platonic Games
First Bite older $9.99 149 84% 4.5k $45k (exactly $44,655) First Bite Games
Particles of Reality older $29.99 49 89% 1.5k $44k (exactly $44,085) Arewar Games
The Radiants older $16.99 75 82% 2.3k $38k (exactly $38,228) Rose Arcana Games
Lover's Enigma $11.99 98 87% 2.9k $35k (exactly $35,251) FallenCranberry Studio
Area-X older $24.99 27 100% 810 $20k (exactly $20,242) Zeiva Inc
AnnaRedux $19.99 29 79% 870 $17k (exactly $17,391) 那什么游戏制作日记
Trap for the Heir $8.99 21 90% 630 $5.7k (exactly $5,664) MariLuzaria
Endless Dream · EA $8.99 1 100% 30 $270 (exactly $270) 濒危生物同好会
The Night That Reaches a God $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) DiveCat
Dreaming Briar Rose -Demon's Temptation- $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) sweet ampoule

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.