Do I ship it?

GamesOtomeOtome + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Otome?

Otome + LGBTQ+

Of 45 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Otome in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 93 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.9k, ×83 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×1247 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 93 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 83.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 93 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Otome + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $46k → $40k → $14k → $14k → $4.2k → $15k → $4.0k (still earning) → $27k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Otome + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,887)
Median $9.9k (exactly $9,897)
Top 25% $43k (exactly $42,722)
Top 5% $148k (exactly $148,450)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 181
Announced 93
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Otome; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Dating Sim, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 3,442 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.9k, median $9.9k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.9k. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 93 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Otome with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  2. + 2D PlatformerFair21 devs · median $420 · 28 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds24 devs · median $11k · 30 announced
  4. + Dating SimPoor odds110 devs · median $7.8k · 192 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionPoor odds71 devs · median $7.8k · 126 announced
  6. + Character CustomizationPoor odds16 devs · median $7.5k · 39 announced
  7. + SimulationPoor odds69 devs · median $7.2k · 120 announced
  8. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds65 devs · median $6.5k · 118 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds58 devs · median $6.5k · 121 announced
  10. + Word GamePoor odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 34 announced
  11. + MysteryPoor odds32 devs · median $5.8k · 65 announced
  12. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds117 devs · median $5.8k · 199 announced

All 32 pairs on the Otome page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DRAMAtical Murder older $19.99 4,640 96% 139k $2.8M (exactly $2,782,608) Nitro+CHiRAL
My Vow to My Liege older $9.99 3,844 91% 115k $1.2M (exactly $1,152,047) YETU GAME
Sensei! I Like You So Much! $16.99 1,304 86% 39k $665k (exactly $664,649) LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network… (LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network Technology Co. LTD))
OZMAFIA!! older $34.99 608 80% 18k $638k (exactly $638,218) Poni-Pachet SY
Hustle Cat older $19.99 1,023 94% 31k $613k (exactly $613,493) Date Nighto
Demonheart older $19.99 714 89% 21k $428k (exactly $428,186) Rolling Crown
Arcadia Fallen older $24.99 504 94% 15k $378k (exactly $377,849) Galdra Studios
Magical Diary: Horse Hall older $14.99 708 93% 21k $318k (exactly $318,388) Hanako Games
Bewitching Sinners older $17.99 513 94% 15k $277k (exactly $276,866) Miss Xero
Arcade Spirits older $19.99 435 94% 13k $261k (exactly $260,869) Fiction Factory Games
Only You $6.99 719 94% 22k $151k (exactly $150,774) 忘雪社
Arcadia Fallen II $29.99 165 98% 5.0k $148k (exactly $148,450) Galdra Studios
Velvet Bite: Softly, with Teeth $39.99 84 54% 2.5k $101k (exactly $100,775) EVERIUM
Mythic Love: Iberian Legends $12.99 251 92% 7.5k $98k (exactly $97,815) Platonic Games
High Times $19.99 163 90% 4.9k $98k (exactly $97,751) Yangyang Mobile
lovebyte.exe · EA $11.99 253 96% 7.6k $91k (exactly $91,004) Nochi Studios
Sigh of the Abyss $17.99 164 96% 4.9k $89k (exactly $88,511) Rascal Devworks
Our Red String · EA $19.99 134 97% 4.0k $80k (exactly $80,360) Eva Kiss
The World Well: Blood of Caro $11.99 205 85% 6.2k $74k (exactly $73,738) Nimparth

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.