Should I ship an MMORPG?
MMORPG
Of 70 developers who shipped a paid MMORPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 534 more are announced, ×14 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $10k, ×7.6 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $5.7M, ×4301 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 534 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $748 (exactly $748) |
|---|---|
| Median | $10k (exactly $10,190) |
| Top 25% | $144k (exactly $143,928) |
| Top 5% | $5.8M (exactly $5,793,351) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 70 |
| Released games | 793 |
| Announced | 534 |
| Effort | 10 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 71%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- MMORPG
- effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
What it takes
- Effort
- 10 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- MMORPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 73% positive over 224,720 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $750. 6 in 10 of the 114 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 534 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×14 per shipper.
All pairs with MMORPG
- MMORPG + Turn-Based Tactics Dead $9.6k
- MMORPG + FPS Dead $4.3k
- MMORPG + Sci-fi Dead $3.3k
- MMORPG + Space Dead $3.3k
- MMORPG + Party-Based RPG Dead $3.0k
- MMORPG + CRPG Dead $3.0k
- MMORPG + Strategy RPG Dead $2.2k
- MMORPG + Immersive Sim Dead $1.3k
- MMORPG + Action Roguelike Dead $1.2k
- MMORPG + Tactical RPG Dead $899
- MMORPG + Management Dead $599
- MMORPG + Female Protagonist Dead $505
- MMORPG + Wargame Dead $449
- MMORPG + Racing Dead $239
- MMORPG + Roguelike Dead $239
- MMORPG + MOBA Dead $150
- MMORPG + Turn-Based Combat Dead $150
- Battle Royale + MMORPG Dead $148
- MMORPG + 2D Platformer Dead $0
- MMORPG + Historical Dead $0
- MMORPG + Real Time Tactics Dead $0
- MMORPG + RTS Dead $0
Comparable games
Monster Hunter: World 2018 · $285M 
Path of Exile 2 2024 · EA · $151M 
Last Epoch 2024 · $112M 
Fallout 76 2020 · $94M 
Diablo® IV 2023 · $88M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Monster Hunter: World | older | $29.99 | 317,068 89% | 9.5M | $285M (exactly $285,266,080) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Path of Exile 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 167,730 76% | 5.0M | $151M (exactly $150,906,681) | Grinding Gear Games |
| | Last Epoch | older | $34.99 | 106,364 76% | 3.2M | $112M (exactly $111,650,291) | Eleventh Hour Games |
| | Fallout 76 | older | $39.99 | 78,346 74% | 2.4M | $94M (exactly $93,991,696) | Bethesda Game Studios |
| | Diablo® IV | older | $49.99 | 58,668 69% | 1.8M | $88M (exactly $87,984,400) | Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. |
 | The Elder Scrolls® Online | older | $19.99 | 134,421 82% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,612,274) | ZeniMax Online Studios |
 | Tom Clancy’s The Division™ | older | $29.99 | 76,985 72% | 2.3M | $69M (exactly $69,263,404) | Massive Entertainment |
 | FINAL FANTASY XIV Online | older | $19.99 | 78,661 86% | 2.4M | $47M (exactly $47,173,002) | Square Enix |
 | Temtem | older | $44.99 | 31,263 82% | 938k | $42M (exactly $42,195,671) | Crema |
 | Red Dead Online | older | $19.99 | 59,572 82% | 1.8M | $36M (exactly $35,725,328) | Rockstar Games |
 | Fellowship | · EA | $24.99 | 15,357 74% | 461k | $12M (exactly $11,513,143) | Chief Rebel |
 | Pax Dei | $29.99 | 7,163 56% | 215k | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) | Mainframe Industries | |
 | Pantheon: Rise of the Fallen | · EA | $39.99 | 4,829 72% | 145k | $5.8M (exactly $5,793,351) | Visionary Realms |
 | SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream | $59.99 | 2,021 64% | 61k | $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) | Dimps Corporation | |
 | The Quinfall | $9.99 | 12,073 50% | 362k | $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) | Vawraek Technology Inc. | |
 | Project: Gorgon | $24.99 | 4,704 81% | 141k | $3.5M (exactly $3,526,589) | Elder Game, LLC | |
 | PIONER | · EA | $29.99 | 3,205 62% | 96k | $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) | GFAGAMES |
 | Age of Water | $29.99 | 2,883 72% | 86k | $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) | Three Whales Studio | |
 | SpiritVale | · EA | $14.99 | 4,755 48% | 143k | $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) | Baikun Interactive |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.