Do I ship it?

GamesMMORPGMMORPG + 2D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 2D Platformer MMORPG?

MMORPG + 2D Platformer

Only 3 developers shipped a paid 2D Platformer MMORPG in the last 2 years. Over all years on record, 5 did: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 25 more are announced, ×8.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $0 against a market of $1.3k. 25 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 25 announced, ×8.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + 2D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, all n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for MMORPG + 2D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, all, n = 5
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $60 (exactly $60)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 5% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Developers, all 5
Released games 54
Announced 25
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $3.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: too few recent games to read.

Free games: 83%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
2D Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG, 2D Platformer
Price point
$3.00 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 3 games average 33% positive over 18 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes over all years on record by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $60, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $1.7k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  5. + CraftingPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  6. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  8. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  9. + Class-BasedPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds28 devs · median $52k · 217 announced
  12. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Retro three kingdoms : Special edition $4.99 12 41% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Retro Republic LLC
猎人修仙传 Hunter Immortal $7.99 5 20% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) blues
Fallen Sky -Online- $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Marco Braun
Plane Ranger $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) asayangjuanchen
Dungeon door $3.00 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Daniel.Co

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.