Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian game?

Lovecraftian

Of 418 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 854 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×8.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×1182 the market median. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 854 games are announced against 229 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 854 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 418
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.8k → $6.0k → $7.8k → $3.3k → $3.1k → $5.7k → $2.5k (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 418
Bottom 30% $897 (exactly $897)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,042)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,872)
Top 5% $561k (exactly $561,319)
Developers, 2 yr 418
Released games 1,247
Announced 854
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 57,701 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 222 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 854 games are announced against 229 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Lovecraftian

77 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Action Roguelike + Lovecraftian Poor odds $3.8k 34 devs
  2. JRPG + Lovecraftian Poor odds $3.1k 11 devs
  3. Bullet Hell + Lovecraftian Poor odds $3.0k 24 devs
  4. Stealth + Lovecraftian Poor odds $2.9k 31 devs
  5. Immersive Sim + Lovecraftian Poor odds $2.9k 30 devs
  6. PvE + Lovecraftian Poor odds $2.6k 25 devs
  7. Point & Click + Lovecraftian Poor odds $2.5k 51 devs
  8. Dungeon Crawler + Lovecraftian Poor odds $2.5k 28 devs
  9. Choose Your Own Adventure + Lovecraftian Poor odds $2.4k 31 devs
  10. Perma Death + Lovecraftian Poor odds $2.2k 22 devs
  11. Platformer + Lovecraftian Poor odds $2.2k 19 devs
  12. Time Management + Lovecraftian Poor odds $2.1k 14 devs
  13. Visual Novel + Lovecraftian Poor odds $1.5k 58 devs
  14. Combat + Lovecraftian Poor odds $1.5k 40 devs
  15. Interactive Fiction + Lovecraftian Poor odds $1.4k 51 devs
  16. Dating Sim + Lovecraftian Poor odds $1.4k 15 devs
  17. 2D Platformer + Lovecraftian Poor odds $1.3k 20 devs
  18. Twin Stick Shooter + Lovecraftian Poor odds $1.2k 9 devs
  19. Arcade + Lovecraftian Poor odds $959 34 devs
  20. Tactical + Lovecraftian Dead $178k 10 devs
  21. Turn-Based + Lovecraftian Dead $123k 7 devs
  22. CRPG + Lovecraftian Dead $9.9k 13 devs
  23. Arena Shooter + Lovecraftian Dead $3.6k 10 devs
  24. Party-Based RPG + Lovecraftian Dead $2.2k 9 devs
  25. Board Game + Lovecraftian Dead $2.2k 7 devs
  26. Score Attack + Lovecraftian Dead $1.5k 9 devs
  27. 3D Platformer + Lovecraftian Dead $719 10 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Darkest Dungeon® 2016 · $106M Remnant: From the Ashes 2019 · $57M SOMA 2015 · $42M Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation 2018 · $39M DREDGE 2023 · $36M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Remnant: From the Ashes older $39.99 47,193 84% 1.4M $57M (exactly $56,617,442) Gunfire Games
SOMA older $29.99 46,772 95% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,080,768) Frictional Games
Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation older $24.99 52,522 94% 1.6M $39M (exactly $39,375,743) ProjectMoon
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
What Remains of Edith Finch older $19.99 47,036 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,207,489) Giant Sparrow
Scorn older $49.99 14,546 77% 436k $22M (exactly $21,814,636) Ebb Software
CARRION older $19.99 33,270 94% 998k $20M (exactly $19,952,019) Phobia Game Studio
SIGNALIS older $19.99 30,601 96% 918k $18M (exactly $18,351,420) rose-engine
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Hell is Us $49.99 4,279 83% 128k $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) Rogue Factor
Look Outside $9.99 13,586 98% 408k $4.1M (exactly $4,071,724) Francis Coulombe
BLACK SOULS $13.99 7,337 95% 220k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu $29.99 3,107 69% 93k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368) ACE Team
Pathologic 3 $34.99 2,528 80% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) Ice-Pick Lodge
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
The Sinking City 2 $49.99 1,410 83% 42k $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577) Frogwares
Strange Antiquities $17.99 3,288 95% 99k $1.8M (exactly $1,774,534) Bad Viking

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.