Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Tactical game?

Tactical + Lovecraftian

Only 10 developers shipped a Lovecraftian Tactical game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ZEPHON, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×16 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $180k against a market of $630. 32 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 282.7 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 32 announced, ×16 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $37k → $178k → $372k
Outcomes for Tactical + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $9.9k (exactly $9,893)
Median $178k (exactly $177,511)
Top 25% $372k (exactly $371,814)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 30
Announced 32
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 75% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 5,629 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $9.9k, median $180k, 1 in 4 over $370k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $9.9k. 4 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×16 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Demonologist older $19.99 18,886 85% 567k $11M (exactly $11,325,934) Clock Wizard Games
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Abandon Ship older $24.99 1,151 71% 35k $863k (exactly $862,905) Fireblade Software
Whisper Mountain Outbreak · EA $7.99 2,421 84% 73k $580k (exactly $580,314) Toge Productions
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Stirring Abyss older $24.99 334 88% 10k $250k (exactly $250,400) Sleepy Sentry, K-Project
Railroads & Catacombs $19.99 358 73% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) MadRails
Starless Abyss $19.99 296 83% 8.9k $178k (exactly $177,511) Konafa Games
Alder's Blood: Definitive Edition older $19.99 209 60% 6.3k $125k (exactly $125,337) Shockwork Games
Achtung! Cthulhu Tactics older $24.99 153 68% 4.6k $115k (exactly $114,704) Auroch Digital
Hunt the Pale Gods $14.99 36 94% 1.1k $16k (exactly $16,189) Nick Papageorgiou
Herogue $14.99 22 95% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) 巴豆肥工作室
Runeomicon $9.99 14 92% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) TLR Games
Grave New World $4.99 22 90% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) grishkogameplay, Dwang
Cult of Abaruth $8.99 2 100% 60 $539 (exactly $539) Codename: Pierogi Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.