Do I ship it?

Games › Action Roguelike › Action Roguelike + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Lovecraftian

Of 34 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×8.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $580k, ×1222 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 61 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 61 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $8.1k → $12k → $2.7k → $4.8k → $1.2k (still earning) → $3.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,166)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,835)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,352)
Top 5% $580k (exactly $580,314)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 88
Announced 61
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 19,416 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $580k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Returnal™ 2023 · $12M Magicraft 2024 · $7.2M 20 Minutes Till Dawn 2023 · $4.2M Crawl 2017 · $2.5M Sundered®: Eldritch Edition 2017 · $2.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Returnal™ older $59.99 6,602 79% 198k $12M (exactly $11,881,619) Housemarque, Climax Studios
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
Crawl older $14.99 5,625 95% 169k $2.5M (exactly $2,529,562) Powerhoof
Sundered®: Eldritch Edition older $19.99 4,094 81% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,455,172) Thunder Lotus
Source of Madness older $19.99 1,410 69% 42k $846k (exactly $845,577) Carry Castle
Eldritch older $14.99 1,698 88% 51k $764k (exactly $763,591) Minor Key Games
Whisper Mountain Outbreak · EA $7.99 2,421 84% 73k $580k (exactly $580,314) Toge Productions
Fresh Body older $9.99 1,138 74% 34k $341k (exactly $341,059) LOVIGAME
Lovecraft's Untold Stories older $14.99 678 78% 20k $305k (exactly $304,897) LLC Blini Games
Katanaut $17.99 484 88% 15k $261k (exactly $261,215) Voidmaw
SealChain: Call of Blood $8.99 537 56% 16k $145k (exactly $144,829) AliveGameStudio
Dark Fairy Tale: Dreamland Survivors $4.99 479 90% 14k $72k (exactly $71,706) BINGOBELL
Game of Rebirth $12.99 81 69% 2.4k $32k (exactly $31,566) ZodiacStudio
Pizza Deathlivery $5.99 161 72% 4.8k $29k (exactly $28,932) Kusa Games
Nullpoint Protocol $14.99 62 61% 1.9k $28k (exactly $27,881) Everbloom Games
Relic Abyss · EA $8.99 94 80% 2.8k $25k (exactly $25,352) Reverse Loop
Metavoidal $14.99 46 93% 1.4k $21k (exactly $20,686) Yellow Lab Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.