Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Lovecraftian
Should I ship a Lovecraftian Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Lovecraftian
Of 58 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 79 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×553 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 79 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $269 (exactly $269) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.5k (exactly $1,498) |
| Top 25% | $17k (exactly $17,261) |
| Top 5% | $263k (exactly $262,625) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 58 |
| Released games | 165 |
| Announced | 79 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Lovecraftian
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 4,725 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 79 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation 2018 · $39M 
What Remains of Edith Finch 2017 · $28M 
Scarlet Hollow 2021 · EA · $4.3M 
Amnesia: A Machine for Pigs 2013 · $4.3M 
The Song of Saya 2019 · $4.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation | older | $24.99 | 52,522 94% | 1.6M | $39M (exactly $39,375,743) | ProjectMoon |
| | What Remains of Edith Finch | older | $19.99 | 47,036 95% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,207,489) | Giant Sparrow |
| | Scarlet Hollow | · EA older | $29.99 | 4,833 97% | 145k | $4.3M (exactly $4,348,250) | Black Tabby Games |
| | Amnesia: A Machine for Pigs | older | $19.99 | 7,236 69% | 217k | $4.3M (exactly $4,339,429) | The Chinese Room |
| | The Song of Saya | older | $14.99 | 9,382 89% | 281k | $4.2M (exactly $4,219,085) | Nitroplus |
 | Yog-Sothoth’s Yard | older | $10.99 | 10,207 93% | 306k | $3.4M (exactly $3,365,248) | Bone Nail |
 | Sucker for Love: First Date | older | $9.99 | 2,683 98% | 80k | $804k (exactly $804,095) | Akabaka |
 | Iwaihime | older | $29.99 | 864 78% | 26k | $777k (exactly $777,341) | DMM GAMES |
 | The Chrono Jotter | older | $11.99 | 1,968 94% | 59k | $708k (exactly $707,890) | Orca Layout |
 | 寄居隅怪奇事件簿 Hermitage Strange Case Files | older | $9.99 | 1,841 80% | 55k | $552k (exactly $551,748) | Arrowiz |
 | Static Dread: The Lighthouse | $10.90 | 1,394 90% | 42k | $456k (exactly $455,838) | solarsuit.games | |
 | Sunken Engine | $14.99 | 814 80% | 24k | $366k (exactly $366,056) | Two Nomads Studio | |
 | The Coma 2B: Catacomb | $14.99 | 584 75% | 18k | $263k (exactly $262,625) | Dvora Studio Co., Ltd. | |
 | DAEMON MASQUERADE | $14.99 | 514 95% | 15k | $231k (exactly $231,146) | Callum Page | |
 | Heart Cage | $20.99 | 363 97% | 11k | $229k (exactly $228,581) | RiceLoveCoffee | |
 | The Coma 3: Bloodlines | $14.99 | 353 86% | 11k | $159k (exactly $158,744) | Dvora Studio Co., Ltd. | |
 | Find the Demon 恶魔鉴定守则 | $7.99 | 346 89% | 10k | $83k (exactly $82,936) | SHAKINO_UNION | |
 | Sucker for Love: Crush Landing | $12.99 | 158 88% | 4.7k | $62k (exactly $61,573) | Akabaka | |
 | The Demons Told Me to Make This Game | · EA | $12.99 | 100 98% | 3.0k | $39k (exactly $38,970) | Haunted Dude |
 | Cafe DReAMLAND | $12.99 | 99 93% | 3.0k | $39k (exactly $38,580) | めとこ |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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