Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian CRPG?

CRPG + Lovecraftian

Only 13 developers shipped a Lovecraftian CRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cyclopean: The Great Abyss, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×6.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $9.9k against a market of $1.5k. 24 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 6.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 24 announced, ×6.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.2k → $313k → $9.9k → $39k
Outcomes for CRPG + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,435)
Median $9.9k (exactly $9,893)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,236)
Top 5% $49k (exactly $48,851)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 36
Announced 24
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Choices Matter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 771 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $9.9k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $48k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Fear & Hunger 2: Termina older $11.99 14,232 97% 427k $5.1M (exactly $5,119,250) Miro Haverinen
Shadows Over Loathing older $22.99 3,120 95% 94k $2.2M (exactly $2,151,864) Asymmetric
Death Trash · EA older $19.99 3,460 91% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,074,962) Crafting Legends
SKALD: Against the Black Priory older $14.99 3,325 93% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,495,252) High North Studios AS
Stygian: Reign of the Old Ones older $19.99 1,804 66% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,081,859) Cultic Games
Archaelund · EA older $24.99 417 84% 13k $313k (exactly $312,625) 4 Dimension Games
Chronos Builder older $29.99 57 38% 1.7k $51k (exactly $51,283) Mistwall Studio
Cyclopean: The Great Abyss $9.99 163 89% 4.9k $49k (exactly $48,851) Schmidt Workshops
Dead Static Drive $29.99 43 37% 1.3k $39k (exactly $38,687) Reuben Games
Whisper of Y'Ryando $7.99 89 70% 2.7k $21k (exactly $21,333) IndieCain, YuetXD
RAVENSBURG $14.99 45 95% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Lilian Duleroux
Subway Exorcist Girl $1.99 306 82% 9.2k $18k (exactly $18,268) 纤指游戏
RECORD_DrowsyVortex $9.99 54 100% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) LunarHillz
Herogue $14.99 22 95% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) 巴豆肥工作室
A Tale of Silent Depths $9.99 21 80% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Crit42 Studio
Mist $5.99 12 75% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Euphoria Games
The Broken Ceiling $2.99 16 100% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,435) Iron Octopus Productions Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.