Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Lovecraftian

Of 31 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×409 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 58 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 58 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $4.9k → $17k → $6.0k → $2.4k → $3.9k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,270)
Top 5% $194k (exactly $194,270)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 98
Announced 58
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Multiple Endings
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,447 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
The Casting of Frank Stone™ older $29.99 5,580 62% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,020,326) Supermassive Games
Scarlet Hollow · EA older $29.99 4,833 97% 145k $4.3M (exactly $4,348,250) Black Tabby Games
Shadows Over Loathing older $22.99 3,120 95% 94k $2.2M (exactly $2,151,864) Asymmetric
Abandon Ship older $24.99 1,151 71% 35k $863k (exactly $862,905) Fireblade Software
Heart Cage $20.99 363 97% 11k $229k (exactly $228,581) RiceLoveCoffee
BLACKSHARD $14.99 432 91% 13k $194k (exactly $194,270) Redlock Studio, Enclave
Omen Exitio: Plague older $9.99 495 85% 15k $148k (exactly $148,352) Tiny Bull Studios
The Infectious Madness of Doctor Dekker older $8.99 549 82% 16k $148k (exactly $148,065) D'Avekki Studios Ltd
Letter Lost $19.99 156 82% 4.7k $94k (exactly $93,553) FlatNine Games
Omen Exitio: Hunger $9.99 117 88% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,065) Tiny Bull Studios
The Allure Of Wanton Cove $9.99 114 78% 3.4k $34k (exactly $34,166) Ktulhu Solutions, Aftermath
49 Keys $9.99 76 77% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) Michele Buonanno, Veronica Wu, Fabio Po… (Michele Buonanno, Veronica Wu, Fabio Porfidia)
Care $9.99 72 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,578) The Pocket Dimension
Marry a Deep One: Innsmouth Simulator $17.99 32 50% 960 $17k (exactly $17,270) simulinati
NoseBound $14.99 36 86% 1.1k $16k (exactly $16,189) Quarantine Interactive
Void Sails $9.99 49 69% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,685) Ticking Clock Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.