Do I ship it?

Games › PvE › PvE + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian PvE game?

PvE + Lovecraftian

Of 25 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian PvE game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 122 more are announced, ×8.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×4.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $580k, ×924 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 122 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 122 announced, ×8.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $2.7k → $3.0k → $33k → $2.2k (still earning) → $270 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,567)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $33,079)
Top 5% $580k (exactly $580,314)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 70
Announced 122
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 5,916 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $580k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 6 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 122 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Gloomwood 2022 · EA · $4.5M Labyrinthine 2023 · $4.1M CULTIC 2022 · $2.4M We Need To Go Deeper 2019 · $2.2M Death Trash 2021 · EA · $2.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gloomwood · EA older $19.99 7,495 95% 225k $4.5M (exactly $4,494,752) Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Be… (Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Berens, Thomas Porta)
Labyrinthine older $9.99 13,779 84% 413k $4.1M (exactly $4,129,566) Valko Game Studios
CULTIC older $9.99 8,027 97% 241k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,692) Jasozz Games
We Need To Go Deeper older $15.99 4,652 86% 140k $2.2M (exactly $2,231,564) Deli Interactive LLC
Death Trash · EA older $19.99 3,460 91% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,074,962) Crafting Legends
Menace from the Deep $16.99 2,466 84% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920) Flat Lab
Whisper Mountain Outbreak · EA $7.99 2,421 84% 73k $580k (exactly $580,314) Toge Productions
The Hive older $19.99 299 71% 9.0k $179k (exactly $179,310) Skydome Entertainment
RailGods of Hysterra · EA $19.99 290 51% 8.7k $174k (exactly $173,913) Troglobytes Games
Dream Cycle older $19.99 248 56% 7.4k $149k (exactly $148,726) Cathuria Games
Hunter's Moon: A Sovereign Syndicate Adventure $19.99 205 83% 6.2k $123k (exactly $122,938) Crimson Herring Studios
HELL GALAXY $24.99 89 74% 2.7k $67k (exactly $66,723) Italian Games Factory
Cyclopean: The Great Abyss $9.99 163 89% 4.9k $49k (exactly $48,851) Schmidt Workshops
Luck & Loot $7.99 138 90% 4.1k $33k (exactly $33,079) SMARTcreative
Metavoidal $14.99 46 93% 1.4k $21k (exactly $20,686) Yellow Lab Games
Cthulhu's Reach: Devil Reef $9.99 68 80% 2.0k $20k (exactly $20,380) The Fine Arc
Rumbral $12.99 30 76% 900 $12k (exactly $11,691) OSEA Innovations

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.