Do I ship it?

GamesDungeon CrawlerDungeon Crawler + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Dungeon Crawler?

Dungeon Crawler + Lovecraftian

Of 28 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Dungeon Crawler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×5.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×452 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 84 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 84 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dungeon Crawler + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.2k → $1.2k → $1.0k → $16k → $18k → $1.4k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dungeon Crawler + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,514)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,733)
Top 5% $215k (exactly $214,693)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 77
Announced 84
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dungeon Crawler
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Dungeon Crawler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 6,490 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dungeon Crawler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair35 devs · median $7.0k · 44 announced
  2. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $7.0k · 17 announced
  3. + DiceFair24 devs · median $5.1k · 32 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair29 devs · median $2.3k · 38 announced
  5. + Local Co-OpFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 60 announced
  6. + ZombiesFair65 devs · median $1.0k · 74 announced
  7. + Word GameFair12 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  8. + ThrillerFair45 devs · median $716 · 46 announced
  9. + Walking SimulatorFair59 devs · median $479 · 62 announced
  10. + Score AttackFair29 devs · median $479 · 33 announced
  11. + MMORPGPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds8 devs · median $55k · 30 announced

All 175 pairs on the Dungeon Crawler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Iratus: Lord of the Dead older $29.99 7,206 84% 216k $6.5M (exactly $6,483,238) Unfrozen
Fear & Hunger 2: Termina older $11.99 14,232 97% 427k $5.1M (exactly $5,119,250) Miro Haverinen
Fear & Hunger older $7.99 20,881 94% 626k $5.0M (exactly $5,005,176) Miro Haverinen
Crawl older $14.99 5,625 95% 169k $2.5M (exactly $2,529,562) Powerhoof
Legend of Keepers: Career of a Dungeon Manager older $19.99 3,939 79% 118k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,218) Goblinz Studio
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
Fresh Body older $9.99 1,138 74% 34k $341k (exactly $341,059) LOVIGAME
Archaelund · EA older $24.99 417 84% 13k $313k (exactly $312,625) 4 Dimension Games
Railroads & Catacombs $19.99 358 73% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) MadRails
Whispers of the Eyeless $19.99 226 74% 6.8k $136k (exactly $135,532) Venris, Evil Gingerbread Studio
Cyclopean: The Great Abyss $9.99 163 89% 4.9k $49k (exactly $48,851) Schmidt Workshops
SHRIMP GAME: OVERKRILL $11.99 93 89% 2.8k $33k (exactly $33,452) GasGod Games, GLUE MAN
Luck & Loot $7.99 138 90% 4.1k $33k (exactly $33,079) SMARTcreative
SAVE · EA $11.99 91 48% 2.7k $33k (exactly $32,733) Influsion Inc.
Cthulhu's Reach: Devil Reef $9.99 68 80% 2.0k $20k (exactly $20,380) The Fine Arc
Dead Wells: The Devil Fragment $14.99 40 70% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) Echo7Project
Hunt the Pale Gods $14.99 36 94% 1.1k $16k (exactly $16,189) Nick Papageorgiou

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.