Do I ship it?

GamesParty-Based RPGParty-Based RPG + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Lovecraftian

Only 9 developers shipped a Lovecraftian Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cyclopean: The Great Abyss, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×17 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $2.2k against a market of $630. 33 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 33 announced, ×17 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $310k → $313k → $3.0k → $1.5k
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 25% $9.9k (exactly $9,893)
Top 5% $49k (exactly $48,851)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 35
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 75% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 87% positive over 266 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $9.8k, 1 in 20 over $48k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×17 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Fear & Hunger 2: Termina older $11.99 14,232 97% 427k $5.1M (exactly $5,119,250) Miro Haverinen
SKALD: Against the Black Priory older $14.99 3,325 93% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,495,252) High North Studios AS
Stygian: Reign of the Old Ones older $19.99 1,804 66% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,081,859) Cultic Games
Archaelund · EA older $24.99 417 84% 13k $313k (exactly $312,625) 4 Dimension Games
Shardpunk older $13.99 739 92% 22k $310k (exactly $310,158) Clockwork Pile
A House of Many Doors older $10.99 383 83% 11k $126k (exactly $126,275) Pixel Trickery
The Yellow King · EA older $8.99 195 46% 5.9k $53k (exactly $52,592) Spellbook
Cyclopean: The Great Abyss $9.99 163 89% 4.9k $49k (exactly $48,851) Schmidt Workshops
RAVENSBURG $14.99 45 95% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Lilian Duleroux
Herogue $14.99 22 95% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) 巴豆肥工作室
Abyss Crew $9.99 10 30% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) PGM Studio, Deep Slap Studio
Dungeon Mercenaries $14.99 5 0% 150 $2.2k (exactly $2,248) Redboy Games
Three Sisters · EA $5.99 10 90% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) CFG Studios
NECRONOMICAT $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) GROOVY GORY GAMES
Uncanny Valley: Le Petit Morte $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Chris King
Army of Tentacles: Assault on Rainbow Unicorn Island $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Stegalosaurus Game Development
Army of Tentacles: (Not) A Cthulhu Dating Sim 10th Anniversary Edition $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Stegalosaurus Game Development

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.