Do I ship it?

GamesPlatformerPlatformer + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Platformer?

Platformer + Lovecraftian

Only 19 developers shipped a Lovecraftian Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Voidwrought, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×1182 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 37 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 37 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Platformer + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $1.8k → $6.1k → $2.2k → $14k → $4.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Platformer + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,242)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,887)
Top 5% $561k (exactly $561,319)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 73
Announced 37
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Platformer; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 2,221 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  2. + PinballStrong odds10 devs · median $2.5k · 6 announced
  3. + Combat RacingFair28 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  4. + FMVFair9 devs · median $899 · 10 announced
  5. + SimulationFair281 devs · median $628 · 235 announced
  6. + Grid-Based MovementFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  7. + AutomationFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  8. + Turn-Based TacticsLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $7.2k · 90 announced
  10. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds32 devs · median $6.5k · 90 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $5.8k · 38 announced
  12. + SkateboardingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced

All 206 pairs on the Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
CARRION older $19.99 33,270 94% 998k $20M (exactly $19,952,019) Phobia Game Studio
ICEY older $10.99 25,142 89% 754k $8.3M (exactly $8,289,317) FantaBlade Network
Sundered®: Eldritch Edition older $19.99 4,094 81% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,455,172) Thunder Lotus
They Bleed Pixels older $9.99 2,040 84% 61k $611k (exactly $611,388) Spooky Squid Games Inc.
The Last Case of Benedict Fox Definitive Edition older $24.99 786 71% 24k $589k (exactly $589,264) Plot Twist
Voidwrought $19.99 936 77% 28k $561k (exactly $561,319) Powersnake
Elderand older $19.99 552 75% 17k $331k (exactly $331,034) Mantra, Sinergia Games
Katanaut $17.99 484 88% 15k $261k (exactly $261,215) Voidmaw
Magrunner: Dark Pulse older $19.99 364 80% 11k $218k (exactly $218,291) Frogwares
BLACKSHARD $14.99 432 91% 13k $194k (exactly $194,270) Redlock Studio, Enclave
Auridia $9.99 169 97% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,649) Reed Molbak, Norseboar Games
VonGarland Castle : Beyond Blood $14.99 42 57% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Ash Jackson
The Shaman's Ark $9.99 47 97% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) Amortiz Games
Rumbral $12.99 30 76% 900 $12k (exactly $11,691) OSEA Innovations
The Mansion of The Macabre $14.99 10 20% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Team Tatou
Bio Fail $2.99 46 100% 1.4k $4.1k (exactly $4,126) Langonier
LSD: Dream Emulator Retro $2.99 25 36% 750 $2.2k (exactly $2,242) Eternity Dev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.