Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid

Of 249 developers who shipped a Hex Grid game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 417 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×619 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 417 games are announced against 146 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 417 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 249
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $2.4k → $1.1k → $1.2k → $1.9k → $2.2k → $1.5k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 249
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,126)
Top 5% $294k (exactly $293,853)
Developers, 2 yr 249
Released games 804
Announced 417
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Hex Grid
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 56% positive over 61,562 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 119 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 417 games are announced against 146 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Hex Grid

16 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Hex Grid + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $19k 7 devs
  2. Hex Grid + Historical Poor odds $6.1k 30 devs
  3. Hex Grid + War Poor odds $4.5k 34 devs
  4. Hex Grid + Alternate History Poor odds $4.0k 10 devs
  5. Hex Grid + Fantasy Poor odds $3.4k 61 devs
  6. Hex Grid + Medieval Poor odds $3.4k 38 devs
  7. Hex Grid + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.4k 15 devs
  8. Hex Grid + Military Poor odds $3.4k 25 devs
  9. Hex Grid + Robots Poor odds $3.4k 11 devs
  10. Hex Grid + Magic Poor odds $3.0k 20 devs
  11. Hex Grid + Aliens Poor odds $2.6k 12 devs
  12. Hex Grid + Nature Poor odds $1.5k 28 devs
  13. Hex Grid + Space Poor odds $1.5k 20 devs
  14. Hex Grid + Sci-fi Poor odds $898 44 devs
  15. Hex Grid + Futuristic Poor odds $898 20 devs
  16. Hex Grid + World War II Dead $1.2k 5 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M Sid Meier's Civilization® V 2010 · $115M Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M For The King 2018 · $19M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization® V older $29.99 128,186 95% 3.8M $115M (exactly $115,328,944) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ older $39.99 14,047 61% 421k $17M (exactly $16,852,186) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
ENDLESS Legend™ older $29.99 14,413 83% 432k $13M (exactly $12,967,376) AMPLITUDE Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War older $39.99 8,148 82% 244k $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) Proxy Studios
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Solasta II · EA $39.99 2,931 75% 88k $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) Tactical Adventures
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
Psychic Kung Fu Master $19.99 1,723 60% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,033,283) 金十四工作室
Frosthaven · EA $39.99 814 72% 24k $977k (exactly $976,556) Snapshot Games Inc.
In Falsus $39.99 788 89% 24k $945k (exactly $945,364) lowiro
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Kaizen: A Factory Story $19.99 694 91% 21k $416k (exactly $416,192) Coincidence

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.