Do I ship it?

Games › Hex Grid › Hex Grid + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Nature

Of 28 developers who shipped a Nature Hex Grid game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $86k, ×182 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 33 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 33 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $2.6k → $807 → $598 → $2.5k → $19k (still earning) → $510 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hex Grid + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,881)
Top 5% $86k (exactly $86,342)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 68
Announced 33
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.66

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Hex Grid; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Procedural Generation
Price point
$6.66 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.66.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,071 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $86k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  4. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  10. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  11. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Thrive 2021 · EA · $251k Hive Blight 2026 · EA · $138k MicroTown 2019 · EA · $133k Humanica 2026 · EA · $86k Terroir 2017 · $82k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Thrive · EA older $4.99 1,680 92% 50k $251k (exactly $251,496) Revolutionary Games Studio
Hive Blight · EA $12.49 367 94% 11k $138k (exactly $137,515) OptizOnion
MicroTown · EA older $9.99 444 94% 13k $133k (exactly $133,067) Snowy Ash Games
Humanica · EA $14.99 192 93% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) PanfachDev
Terroir older $7.99 341 72% 10k $82k (exactly $81,738) General Interactive Co.
CIPHER ZERO $14.99 165 89% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) Zapdot
Growth older $9.99 207 90% 6.2k $62k (exactly $62,038) VoodooDuck
Folk Emerging $24.99 73 86% 2.2k $55k (exactly $54,728) Curious Dynamics
Atlas Architect older $5.99 202 70% 6.1k $36k (exactly $36,299) Danial Rashidi
Evergarden older $9.99 120 87% 3.6k $36k (exactly $35,964) Flippfly LLC
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
Plentiful · EA $9.99 79 91% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) GabberGames
Wild City $9.99 63 88% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,881) Monka Studios
Wild Country $24.99 11 54% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Lost Native
Starbug Troopers : The 4 horseflies of the apocalypse $8.99 13 84% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) Big Loot Games
ErMa (Early Mammal) $7.99 11 90% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) AlmyriganHero

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.