Do I ship it?

GamesHex GridHex Grid + World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + World War II

Only 5 developers shipped a WWII Hex Grid game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, America Against Ants, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.2k against a market of $630. 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 11 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Hex Grid + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $480 (exactly $480)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 5% $4.0k (exactly $4,047)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 66
Announced 11
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Hex Grid
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $15.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 11,649 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $4.0k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 11 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  4. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  10. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  11. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Panzer Corps 2 older $39.99 3,512 84% 105k $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) Flashback Games
Panzer Corps Gold older $29.99 2,227 91% 67k $2.0M (exactly $2,003,632) Flashback Games, The Lordz Games Studio
Unity of Command II older $29.99 2,042 79% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,837,187) 2x2 Games, Croteam
The Troop older $39.99 816 83% 24k $979k (exactly $978,955) Giant Flame
Hex of Steel older $24.99 863 95% 26k $647k (exactly $646,991) War Frogs Studio
Second Front older $34.99 613 78% 18k $643k (exactly $643,466) Hexdraw
Strategic Command WWII: World at War older $39.99 519 84% 16k $623k (exactly $622,644) Fury Software
Strategic Command WWII: War in Europe older $39.99 333 90% 10k $400k (exactly $399,500) Fury Software
Panzer Strategy older $29.99 437 64% 13k $393k (exactly $393,169) Starni Games
The Operational Art of War IV older $39.99 287 78% 8.6k $344k (exactly $344,314) TrickeySoft LLC
America Against Ants $14.99 9 100% 270 $4.0k (exactly $4,047) Aartform Games, Mark Brendan
Panzer Commander $6.99 12 100% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Fancing Game Studio
Broken Front $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) KOArtist Games
Grenadier Command · EA $15.99 1 100% 30 $480 (exactly $480) kratijun
WEGO World War II: Desert War $39.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) BK Wargames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.