Do I ship it?

GamesHex GridHex Grid + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Post-apocalyptic

Only 7 developers shipped a Post-apocalyptic Hex Grid game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Dead Await, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $19k, ×30 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $42k, ×67 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 18 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 29.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 18 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.9k → $41k → $27k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hex Grid + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $19k (exactly $18,591)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,844)
Top 5% $42k (exactly $42,088)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 30
Announced 18
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Hex Grid
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 14,299 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $19k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $42k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 18 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  4. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  5. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  6. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  7. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  8. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  9. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  10. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  11. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 23 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crying Suns older $24.99 3,149 85% 94k $2.4M (exactly $2,360,805) Alt Shift
NEO Scavenger older $14.99 4,437 89% 133k $2.0M (exactly $1,995,319) Blue Bottle Games
Sheltered 2 older $19.99 2,015 45% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,208,396) Unicube
Urtuk: The Desolation older $13.99 2,408 87% 72k $1.0M (exactly $1,010,638) David Kaleta
Before We Leave older $19.99 1,278 78% 38k $766k (exactly $766,417) Balancing Monkey Games
Ogre older $24.99 223 66% 6.7k $167k (exactly $167,183) Auroch Digital
Lost Scavenger · EA older $14.99 220 51% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Rockbee
Z Dawn older $9.99 259 72% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,622) GoldenGod Games
Dawnmaker older $14.99 156 91% 4.7k $70k (exactly $70,153) Arpentor Studio
Winds Of Trade older $11.99 154 61% 4.6k $55k (exactly $55,394) Rhombico Games
The Dead Await $12.99 108 67% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Shotx
Gunbot Diplomacy $4.99 186 86% 5.6k $28k (exactly $27,844) Sleepy Sentry
Deep Fringe · EA $19.99 45 88% 1.4k $27k (exactly $26,986) Bosoneon Studio
Xenowars $19.99 31 83% 930 $19k (exactly $18,591) Strategeion Studios
Fur and Void $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) DFS
Rabbit Comes Home $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) ZIPSTED
3096 $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hector Hedgecoat Industries

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.