Do I ship it?

GamesHex GridHex Grid + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Medieval

Of 38 developers who shipped a Medieval Hex Grid game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×7.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $600k, ×1268 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 72 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 72 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $629 → $1.8k → $18k → $1.6k → $2.2k → $5.5k → $3.0k (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hex Grid + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,418)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,639)
Top 5% $602k (exactly $602,305)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 97
Announced 72
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Hex Grid; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 3,340 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  4. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  10. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  11. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ENDLESS Legend™ older $29.99 14,413 83% 432k $13M (exactly $12,967,376) AMPLITUDE Studios
King's Bounty II older $39.99 4,473 61% 134k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,258) Fulqrum Games
Expeditions: Viking older $29.99 3,293 82% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,962,712) Logic Artists
Brigandine The Legend of Runersia older $39.99 1,331 85% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,596,801) Happinet, Matrix
Frosthaven · EA $39.99 814 72% 24k $977k (exactly $976,556) Snapshot Games Inc.
TerraScape older $14.99 2,068 88% 62k $930k (exactly $929,980) Bitfall Studios
Legends of Kingdom Rush older $14.99 1,524 66% 46k $685k (exactly $685,343) Ironhide Game Studio
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Rising Lords older $19.99 904 70% 27k $542k (exactly $542,129) Argonwood
WARTILE older $19.99 601 75% 18k $360k (exactly $360,420) Playwood Project
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
Veterum $19.99 204 85% 6.1k $122k (exactly $122,339) Crasleen Games
Humanica · EA $14.99 192 93% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) PanfachDev
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip
Fight Life: Vanguard $11.99 164 69% 4.9k $59k (exactly $58,991) StartImpulse, Two Cakes Studio
Sword & Siege Crusades: Book I $39.95 19 100% 570 $23k (exactly $22,772) Wargame Design Studio
Transport Legion $8.99 76 81% 2.3k $20k (exactly $20,497) 喜人一个

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.