Do I ship it?

GamesHex GridHex Grid + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Space

Of 20 developers who shipped a Space Hex Grid game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $65k, ×105 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 33 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 33 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $25k → $300 → $19k → $0 → $1.5k → $1.6k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hex Grid + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,591)
Top 5% $66k (exactly $65,656)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 71
Announced 33
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Hex Grid; all of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Combat, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 469 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $65k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  4. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  10. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  11. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ older $39.99 14,047 61% 421k $17M (exactly $16,852,186) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Galactic Civilizations III older $29.99 8,337 77% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) Stardock Entertainment
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
Terraforming Mars older $19.99 5,194 71% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) Artefacts Studio
Galactic Civilizations IV older $39.99 2,207 72% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,647,738) Stardock Entertainment
Crying Suns older $24.99 3,149 85% 94k $2.4M (exactly $2,360,805) Alt Shift
Shadow Empire older $39.99 1,431 82% 43k $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) VR Designs
Before We Leave older $19.99 1,278 78% 38k $766k (exactly $766,417) Balancing Monkey Games
Pandora: First Contact older $29.99 538 61% 16k $484k (exactly $484,039) Proxy Studios
Final Theory older $14.99 386 79% 12k $174k (exactly $173,584) Monticube
Clonizer $14.99 146 82% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Juicy Plume
Space Imperia 4X $22.99 70 92% 2.1k $48k (exactly $48,279) Breich Games
Eclipse - 2nd Dawn for the Galaxy $12.99 95 57% 2.9k $37k (exactly $37,022) BrettspielWelt GmbH
Astro Protocol $11.99 66 93% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) Null Vector Studios
Xenowars $19.99 31 83% 930 $19k (exactly $18,591) Strategeion Studios
Starbug Troopers : The 4 horseflies of the apocalypse $8.99 13 84% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) Big Loot Games
Destination Gemini $8.99 13 100% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) Hubert Cachat
UniWar $7.99 14 71% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) Spooky House
Orbiteers $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Northborne Studios
Hexfactory $4.99 10 60% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) Aquila Industrial

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.