Do I ship it?

GamesHex GridHex Grid + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Military

Of 25 developers who shipped a Military Hex Grid game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $64k, ×103 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 43 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 43 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.4k → $66k → $1.8k → $7.2k → $4.0k (still earning) → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hex Grid + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,356)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,196)
Top 5% $65k (exactly $64,789)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 101
Announced 43
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Hex Grid; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Wargame
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.95 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.95 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 48% positive over 45,085 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $64k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  4. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  10. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  11. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War older $39.99 8,148 82% 244k $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) Proxy Studios
Panzer Corps 2 older $39.99 3,512 84% 105k $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) Flashback Games
Millennia older $39.99 2,976 67% 89k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,307) C Prompt Games
Panzer Corps Gold older $29.99 2,227 91% 67k $2.0M (exactly $2,003,632) Flashback Games, The Lordz Games Studio
Unity of Command II older $29.99 2,042 79% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,837,187) 2x2 Games, Croteam
Fantasy General II older $39.99 1,034 82% 31k $1.2M (exactly $1,240,490) Owned by Gravity
The Troop older $39.99 816 83% 24k $979k (exactly $978,955) Giant Flame
Hexarchy older $19.99 1,231 83% 37k $738k (exactly $738,231) Main Tank Software
Hex of Steel older $24.99 863 95% 26k $647k (exactly $646,991) War Frogs Studio
大戦略SSB2 $59.99 36 66% 1.1k $65k (exactly $64,789) Systemsoft beta, Inc.
Space Imperia 4X $22.99 70 92% 2.1k $48k (exactly $48,279) Breich Games
Sword & Siege Crusades: Book I $39.95 19 100% 570 $23k (exactly $22,772) Wargame Design Studio
Combat Directive : Napoleonic Wars $19.99 36 88% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Fatice Games
Great Powers $14.99 37 67% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) Flame-Dragons, Flame-Dragons
1953: NATO vs Warsaw Pact $5.99 70 41% 2.1k $13k (exactly $12,579) Wastelands Interactive
American Revolutionary War $39.95 9 100% 270 $11k (exactly $10,786) Wargame Design Studio
Sword & Siege Age of Longbow: Volume I $39.95 7 100% 210 $8.4k (exactly $8,390) Wargame Design Studio
Cold War Battles $19.99 12 91% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) Kudos Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.