Do I ship it?

GamesHex GridHex Grid + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Futuristic

Of 20 developers who shipped a Futuristic Hex Grid game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $74k, ×156 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 30 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 30 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $479 → $599 → $1.5k → $599 (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hex Grid + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 5% $74k (exactly $74,200)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 59
Announced 30
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Hex Grid; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Puzzle, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 333 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $900, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $74k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  4. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  10. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  11. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ older $39.99 14,047 61% 421k $17M (exactly $16,852,186) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Galactic Civilizations III older $29.99 8,337 77% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) Stardock Entertainment
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
Galactic Civilizations IV older $39.99 2,207 72% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,647,738) Stardock Entertainment
Revival: Recolonization older $29.99 335 69% 10k $301k (exactly $301,400) HeroCraft PC
Final Theory older $14.99 386 79% 12k $174k (exactly $173,584) Monticube
CIPHER ZERO $14.99 165 89% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) Zapdot
Starport Delta older $24.99 60 66% 1.8k $45k (exactly $44,982) Cloudfire Studios
Blast-off older $2.99 379 86% 11k $34k (exactly $33,996) Quad-Games
Vactics older $10.99 50 98% 1.5k $16k (exactly $16,485) The Lemur Conspiracy
Final Liberation: Warhammer Epic 40,000 (Classic) $5.99 88 87% 2.6k $16k (exactly $15,814) Holistic Design Inc
HexaScape: Cyber Defense $14.99 15 100% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) Clockwork Origins
Hex Harmony · EA $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Pixel Builder Studio
Hexalith $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Artemi Studios
Sente $7.99 11 100% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Oxobox Games Studios
Hexfactory $4.99 10 60% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) Aquila Industrial
Dotu $5.99 5 80% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Chicken Undercover
VR # AVOID $4.99 6 83% 180 $898 (exactly $898) s0trax994
Shard Cycle $4.99 6 83% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Narog Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.