Should I ship a Physics game?
Physics
Of 3,323 developers who shipped a Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5,387 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×497 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 5,387 games are announced against 2,033 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $150 (exactly $150) |
|---|---|
| Median | $718 (exactly $718) |
| Top 25% | $5.2k (exactly $5,211) |
| Top 5% | $312k (exactly $312,196) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 3,323 |
| Released games | 9,675 |
| Announced | 5,387 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 1,034,398 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 1,684 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 5,387 games are announced against 2,033 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
All pairs with Physics
- Physics + Supernatural Poor odds $629
- Physics + Music Poor odds $629
- Physics + Gothic Poor odds $628
- Physics + Sci-fi Poor odds $599
- Physics + Zombies Poor odds $539
- Physics + Space Poor odds $538
- Physics + Mythology Poor odds $479
- Physics + Superhero Poor odds $359
- Physics + Cold War Dead $19k
- Physics + Assassins Dead $1.4k
- Physics + Futuristic Dead $449
- Physics + Cyberpunk Dead $449
- Physics + Aliens Dead $358
- Physics + Noir Dead $270
- Physics + Dogs Dead $239
- Physics + Ninja Dead $239
Comparable games
Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M 
Garry's Mod 2006 · $328M 
BeamNG.drive 2015 · EA · $291M 
Battlefield™ 1 2020 · $241M 
Kerbal Space Program 2015 · $145M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Battlefield™ 2042 | older | $59.99 | 260,308 49% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,476,308) | DICE |
| | Garry's Mod | older | $9.99 | 1,093,131 96% | 33M | $328M (exactly $327,611,361) | Facepunch Studios |
| | BeamNG.drive | · EA older | $24.99 | 388,236 97% | 12M | $291M (exactly $291,060,529) | BeamNG |
| | Battlefield™ 1 | older | $39.99 | 200,661 86% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $240,733,002) | DICE |
| | Kerbal Space Program | older | $39.99 | 120,656 95% | 3.6M | $145M (exactly $144,751,003) | Squad |
 | Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition | $59.99 | 70,073 78% | 2.1M | $126M (exactly $126,110,378) | Asobo Studio | |
 | Portal 2 | older | $9.99 | 390,412 98% | 12M | $117M (exactly $117,006,476) | Valve |
 | Teardown | older | $29.99 | 126,563 95% | 3.8M | $114M (exactly $113,868,731) | Tuxedo Labs |
 | Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition | older | $19.99 | 180,637 83% | 5.4M | $108M (exactly $108,328,009) | Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto |
 | Human Fall Flat | older | $19.99 | 174,835 94% | 5.2M | $105M (exactly $104,848,549) | No Brakes Games |
 | R.E.P.O. | · EA | $9.99 | 341,004 96% | 10M | $102M (exactly $102,198,899) | semiwork |
 | Scrap Mechanic | $28.99 | 109,429 92% | 3.3M | $95M (exactly $95,170,401) | Axolot Games | |
 | DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO | $49.99 | 50,395 86% | 1.5M | $76M (exactly $75,577,382) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | PEAK | $7.99 | 301,964 94% | 9.1M | $72M (exactly $72,380,771) | Team PEAK | |
 | Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 | $69.99 | 21,633 59% | 649k | $45M (exactly $45,422,810) | Asobo Studio | |
 | Timberborn | $34.99 | 38,529 95% | 1.2M | $40M (exactly $40,443,891) | Mechanistry | |
 | Farming Simulator 25 | $29.99 | 39,681 87% | 1.2M | $36M (exactly $35,700,996) | GIANTS Software | |
 | Wobbly Life | $24.99 | 33,034 97% | 991k | $25M (exactly $24,765,590) | RubberBandGames | |
 | Half Sword | · EA | $24.99 | 28,656 71% | 860k | $21M (exactly $21,483,403) | Half Sword Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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