Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Physics game?

Physics + Ninja

Only 8 developers shipped a Ninja Physics game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Haneda Girl, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 19 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 19 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $299 → $599 → $0 → $0 → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 5% $33k (exactly $33,278)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 47
Announced 19
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 12,029 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $33k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 19 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Overgrowth 2017 · $3.7M N++ (NPLUSPLUS) 2016 · $1.3M Fruit Ninja VR 2016 · $360k Swords of Gurrah 2020 · EA · $280k Project Demigod 2024 · $238k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Overgrowth older $19.99 6,202 86% 186k $3.7M (exactly $3,719,339) Wolfire Games
N++ (NPLUSPLUS) older $14.99 2,825 95% 85k $1.3M (exactly $1,270,402) Metanet Software Inc.
Fruit Ninja VR older $14.99 801 80% 24k $360k (exactly $360,210) Halfbrick Studios Pty Ltd
Swords of Gurrah · EA older $14.99 622 78% 19k $280k (exactly $279,713) Devster, LLC
Project Demigod older $19.99 397 69% 12k $238k (exactly $238,081) Omnifarious Studios LLC
Tricking 0 · EA older $19.99 107 89% 3.2k $64k (exactly $64,168) Full-in Studios
Pro Gymnast Simulator older $14.99 105 92% 3.2k $47k (exactly $47,218) Walaber Entertainment LLC
Old Coin Pusher Friends older $3.99 351 89% 11k $42k (exactly $42,015) STP WORKS
Haneda Girl $14.99 74 94% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) Studio Koba
Shades of Sakura older $1.99 545 69% 16k $33k (exactly $32,536) BanzaiProject
Prop Sumo $9.99 13 84% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Barrel Roll Games
Backflip Madness 2 $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Hubert Śliwka
Ninja Arena $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Lunar Code Studio
Ninjas on Trampolines $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Olympus Interactive
Pizzaïolo-Ninja · EA $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) WTJ Games
The Legend of URE $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) James H. Van der Meulen
Ninja $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Taranau Aliaksei

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.