Do I ship it?

GamesPhysicsPhysics + Superhero

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Superhero Physics game?

Physics + Superhero

Only 9 developers shipped a Superhero Physics game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Spectacular Team: Assemble, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 21 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper, while revenue is up 305% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 305% on the market, 21 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Superhero
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $5.4k → $748 → $0 → $809 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Superhero: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $898 (exactly $898)
Top 5% $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 43
Announced 21
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 305% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Superhero
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Physics
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 4,129 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $360, 1 in 4 over $890, 1 in 20 over $3.1k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Megaton Rainfall older $15.99 2,155 71% 65k $1.0M (exactly $1,033,754) Pentadimensional Games, SL
Amazing Frog? 2 · EA older $19.99 726 77% 22k $435k (exactly $435,382) Fayju
Project Demigod older $19.99 397 69% 12k $238k (exactly $238,081) Omnifarious Studios LLC
Superfly older $14.99 520 90% 16k $234k (exactly $233,844) Loco Motion Devs
Death Horizon: Reloaded older $19.99 76 80% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) Horizon Lab LLP
Airborn older $12.99 93 88% 2.8k $36k (exactly $36,242) Still Not Sure
Turbo Chicken Simulator · EA older $14.99 41 87% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Balkanware
Otokomizu~漢水~ older $19.99 29 89% 870 $17k (exactly $17,391) BIG BOYS STUDIO
Conquer Humanity · EA older $2.99 60 68% 1.8k $5.4k (exactly $5,382) Adi Zhavo
Evil Superhero VR - Superhero Simulator older $4.99 32 53% 960 $4.8k (exactly $4,790) Anark Studios
Spectacular Team: Assemble $7.99 13 100% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) Sengi Games
Hop Drop $5.99 5 60% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Goon Squad
SuperEats $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) PoisonGames
Outer Space Bar $8.99 3 66% 90 $809 (exactly $809) OZNA STUDIO
Skyline Savior $2.99 4 75% 120 $359 (exactly $359) Beyond Horizon Games
RockOUT: Only up with Your Head $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Chronotope.App
Slightly Overweight Superhero and the seven levels of death $8.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Nathan Laird
Slap Fighter $14.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Curious Games
AIZASIA $19.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) LLC Onisino

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.