Games › Physics › Physics + Aliens
Should I ship an Alien Physics game?
Physics + Aliens
Of 69 developers who shipped an Alien Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 138 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $390 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 39 developers shipped in the last year and 138 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $60 (exactly $60) |
|---|---|
| Median | $358 (exactly $358) |
| Top 25% | $4.1k (exactly $4,133) |
| Top 5% | $118k (exactly $117,741) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 69 |
| Released games | 201 |
| Announced | 138 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 3,962 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 138 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Half-Life 2 2004 · $61M 
Crysis 3 Remastered 2022 · $7.0M 
Surgeon Simulator 2013 · $4.1M 
Hidden Deep 2022 · EA · $3.2M 
Silica 2023 · EA · $2.7M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Half-Life 2 | older | $9.99 | 202,782 97% | 6.1M | $61M (exactly $60,773,765) | Valve |
| | Crysis 3 Remastered | older | $29.99 | 7,731 88% | 232k | $7.0M (exactly $6,955,581) | Crytek, Saber Interactive |
| | Surgeon Simulator | older | $9.99 | 13,796 82% | 414k | $4.1M (exactly $4,134,661) | Bossa Studios |
| | Hidden Deep | · EA older | $24.99 | 4,293 76% | 129k | $3.2M (exactly $3,218,462) | Cogwheel Software |
| | Silica | · EA older | $19.99 | 4,468 77% | 134k | $2.7M (exactly $2,679,460) | Martin 'Dram' Melichárek |
 | Starminer | · EA | $29.99 | 1,818 72% | 55k | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) | CoolAndGoodGames |
 | Red Faction®: Armageddon™ | older | $19.99 | 2,615 70% | 78k | $1.6M (exactly $1,568,215) | Volition |
 | Megaton Rainfall | older | $15.99 | 2,155 71% | 65k | $1.0M (exactly $1,033,754) | Pentadimensional Games, SL |
 | Arken Age | $39.99 | 669 90% | 20k | $803k (exactly $802,599) | VitruviusVR | |
 | Machinika: Museum | older | $7.99 | 1,184 91% | 36k | $284k (exactly $283,805) | Littlefield Studio |
 | Machinika: Atlas | $11.99 | 574 76% | 17k | $206k (exactly $206,468) | Littlefield Studio | |
 | Space Accident VR | $16.99 | 231 82% | 6.9k | $118k (exactly $117,741) | VR-WRG | |
 | Newton's Fourth Law | · EA | $11.99 | 224 93% | 6.7k | $81k (exactly $80,573) | Newtonian Studios |
 | Otherskin | $29.99 | 63 69% | 1.9k | $57k (exactly $56,681) | Game Atelier | |
 | Steve's Warehouse: Physics. Roguelike. Chaos. | $7.99 | 130 87% | 3.9k | $31k (exactly $31,161) | Definitely Named Steve | |
 | Space Control | $17.99 | 52 96% | 1.6k | $28k (exactly $28,064) | MoonMonster Studios | |
 | This Is No Cave | $6.99 | 127 96% | 3.8k | $27k (exactly $26,632) | monome.studio | |
 | DIG Raiders: Anomaly Extraction | $9.99 | 74 86% | 2.2k | $22k (exactly $22,178) | Soda Game Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.