Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › FPS

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an FPS?

FPS

Of 1,987 developers who shipped an FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,809 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×669 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 3,809 games are announced against 1,101 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 3,809 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,987
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $1.8k → $1.5k → $1.9k → $1.2k → $1.5k → $1.2k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,987
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,527)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,002,698)
Developers, 2 yr 1,987
Released games 7,835
Announced 3,809
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,145,534 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 1,245 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,809 games are announced against 1,101 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with FPS

67 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. FPS + Gothic Poor odds $1.0k 24 devs
  2. FPS + Conspiracy Poor odds $987 24 devs
  3. FPS + Zombies Poor odds $898 306 devs
  4. FPS + Mystery Poor odds $838 248 devs
  5. FPS + Western Poor odds $779 34 devs
  6. FPS + Magic Poor odds $659 67 devs
  7. FPS + Nature Poor odds $657 95 devs
  8. FPS + Music Poor odds $449 11 devs
  9. FPS + Dragons Poor odds $419 12 devs
  10. FPS + Medieval Poor odds $416 66 devs
  11. FPS + Snow Poor odds $270 9 devs
  12. FPS + Superhero Dead $3.3k 5 devs
  13. FPS + Underwater Dead $2.8k 6 devs
  14. FPS + Time Travel Dead $838 13 devs
  15. FPS + Werewolves Dead $836 5 devs
  16. FPS + Naval Dead $779 4 devs
  17. FPS + Mars Dead $300 4 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B Rust 2018 · $1.4B Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M DayZ 2018 · $582M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Red Dead Redemption 2 older $59.99 846,270 92% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) Rockstar Games
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Ready or Not older $49.99 265,219 79% 8.0M $398M (exactly $397,748,934) VOID Interactive
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition older $39.99 322,072 88% 9.7M $386M (exactly $386,389,778) Rare Ltd
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
Resident Evil Requiem $69.99 106,931 95% 3.2M $225M (exactly $224,523,021) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
DOOM: The Dark Ages $49.99 32,209 88% 966k $48M (exactly $48,303,837) id Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.