Should I ship a Mystery FPS?
FPS + Mystery
Of 248 developers who shipped a Mystery FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 394 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $840, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270. 394 games are announced against 125 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper, while revenue is down 25% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $269 (exactly $269) |
|---|---|
| Median | $838 (exactly $838) |
| Top 25% | $5.4k (exactly $5,395) |
| Top 5% | $177k (exactly $177,332) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 248 |
| Released games | 575 |
| Announced | 394 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- FPS; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 16,455 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 137 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 394 games are announced against 125 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + FaithFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + RunnerLong shot
- + Action RTSLong shot
- + Bullet HellLong shot
- + DogsLong shot
Comparable games
Atomic Heart 2023 · $75M 
Ghostwire: Tokyo 2022 · $23M 
Inside the Backrooms 2022 · EA · $8.1M 
Call of Cthulhu® 2018 · $6.6M 
FATAL FRAME / PROJECT ZERO: Maiden of Black Water 2021 · $6.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Atomic Heart | older | $59.99 | 41,690 81% | 1.3M | $75M (exactly $75,029,493) | Mundfish |
| | Ghostwire: Tokyo | older | $59.99 | 12,954 83% | 389k | $23M (exactly $23,313,314) | Tango Gameworks |
| | Inside the Backrooms | · EA older | $6.99 | 38,819 80% | 1.2M | $8.1M (exactly $8,140,344) | MrFatcat |
| | Call of Cthulhu® | older | $19.99 | 10,962 79% | 329k | $6.6M (exactly $6,573,911) | Cyanide Studio |
| | FATAL FRAME / PROJECT ZERO: Maiden of Black Water | older | $39.99 | 5,442 82% | 163k | $6.5M (exactly $6,528,767) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | Riddle Joker | older | $34.99 | 5,715 97% | 171k | $6.0M (exactly $5,999,036) | YUZUSOFT |
 | Café Stella and the Reaper's Butterflies | older | $34.99 | 5,450 97% | 164k | $5.7M (exactly $5,720,865) | YUZUSOFT |
 | Gloomwood | · EA older | $19.99 | 7,495 95% | 225k | $4.5M (exactly $4,494,752) | Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Be… (Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Berens, Thomas Porta) |
 | Lay a Beauty to Rest: The Darkness Peach Blossom Spring | older | $13.99 | 6,310 95% | 189k | $2.6M (exactly $2,648,307) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) |
 | Bishojo Mangekyo Kotowari to Meikyu no Shojo | older | $29.99 | 2,718 95% | 82k | $2.4M (exactly $2,445,385) | ωstar, Seikei Production |
 | Crisol: Theater of Idols | $17.99 | 4,103 85% | 123k | $2.2M (exactly $2,214,389) | Vermila Studios | |
 | Total Chaos | $24.99 | 1,561 86% | 47k | $1.2M (exactly $1,170,282) | Trigger Happy Interactive | |
 | Hail to the Rainbow | $14.99 | 2,533 90% | 76k | $1.1M (exactly $1,139,090) | Носков Сергей | |
 | Metal Garden | $5.99 | 4,375 96% | 131k | $786k (exactly $786,188) | Tinerasoft | |
 | The Other Side | · EA | $13.99 | 1,181 93% | 35k | $496k (exactly $495,666) | Vectora Games |
 | Stygian: Outer Gods | · EA | $24.99 | 516 80% | 15k | $387k (exactly $386,845) | Misterial Games |
 | Island Notes | $12.99 | 884 82% | 27k | $344k (exactly $344,495) | KangBaoGame | |
 | Moon Mystery | $19.99 | 551 67% | 17k | $330k (exactly $330,435) | Cosmoscouts | |
 | INDUSTRIA 2 | $24.99 | 431 49% | 13k | $323k (exactly $323,121) | Bleakmill | |
 | Killing Time: Resurrected | $24.99 | 320 92% | 9.6k | $240k (exactly $239,904) | Nightdive Studios, 3DO |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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