Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval FPS?

FPS + Medieval

Of 66 developers who shipped a Medieval FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 114 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 114 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper, while revenue is down 20% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 114 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $898 → $564 → $2.4k → $449 → $897 → $300 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $416 (exactly $416)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,565)
Top 5% $528k (exactly $527,736)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 200
Announced 114
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 22,212 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $420, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $520k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 114 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

MORDHAU 2019 · $82M Chivalry 2 2022 · $56M Chivalry: Medieval Warfare 2012 · $33M Thief 2014 · $10M Hellsplit: Arena 2019 · $2.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MORDHAU older $29.99 91,678 80% 2.8M $82M (exactly $82,482,697) Triternion
Chivalry 2 older $39.99 46,707 79% 1.4M $56M (exactly $56,034,388) Torn Banner Studios
Chivalry: Medieval Warfare older $24.99 44,486 83% 1.3M $33M (exactly $33,351,154) Torn Banner Studios
Thief older $19.99 17,389 75% 522k $10M (exactly $10,428,183) Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac)
Hellsplit: Arena older $24.99 3,735 83% 112k $2.8M (exactly $2,800,130) Deep Type Games
BLACKTAIL older $29.99 1,968 83% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,770,610) THE PARASIGHT
Mage Arena · EA $2.99 17,800 91% 534k $1.6M (exactly $1,596,660) jrsjams
Labyrinth Of The Demon King $19.99 2,116 92% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,268,965) J. R. Hudepohl
Northern Journey older $11.99 3,500 96% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,258,950) Slid Studio
Thief Gold (1999) older $6.99 3,465 92% 104k $727k (exactly $726,610) Looking Glass Studios
Shady Knight $19.99 898 93% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Alexey 'cptnsigh'
Wizordum $19.99 880 91% 26k $528k (exactly $527,736) Emberheart Games
Blood Reaver · EA $14.99 155 88% 4.7k $70k (exactly $69,704) Hell Byte Studios
Devil of the Plague · EA $9.99 186 78% 5.6k $56k (exactly $55,744) SoulByte Games
Wizzerd Quest 2 $14.99 54 74% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Kondoorsoft
SPORTAL $7.99 57 94% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,663) Sleepwalking Potatoes
Blood Brides $9.99 45 62% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Era t'my
Tale of the Bullet Knight · EA $15.99 21 95% 630 $10k (exactly $10,074) JAKALWIZARDSTUDIO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.