Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature FPS?

FPS + Nature

Of 95 developers who shipped a Nature FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 137 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $660, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 137 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper, while revenue is up 95% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 137 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 95
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $359 → $5.0k → $449 → $657 → $2.6k → $748 (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 95
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $657 (exactly $657)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 5% $168k (exactly $168,431)
Developers, 2 yr 95
Released games 247
Announced 137
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.85

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Shooter
Price point
$5.85 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.85.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 61,908 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $660, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. Nearly all of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 137 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Far Cry® 5 2018 · $311M theHunter: Call of the Wild™ 2017 · $102M How to Fish 2026 · $14M Way of the Hunter 2022 · $7.7M Ultimate Fishing Simulator® 2018 · $5.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Far Cry® 5 older $59.99 172,897 81% 5.2M $311M (exactly $311,162,731) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Sh… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Kiev)
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ older $19.99 170,472 89% 5.1M $102M (exactly $102,232,058) Expansive Worlds
How to Fish $7.99 57,661 95% 1.7M $14M (exactly $13,821,342) Dazed Games
Way of the Hunter older $29.99 8,528 81% 256k $7.7M (exactly $7,672,642) Nine Rocks Games
Ultimate Fishing Simulator® older $19.99 8,256 89% 248k $5.0M (exactly $4,951,123) Ultimate Games S.A., Bit Golem
Northern Journey older $11.99 3,500 96% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,258,950) Slid Studio
Lost Rift · EA $24.99 1,465 67% 44k $1.1M (exactly $1,098,310) People Can Fly
Hunting Simulator 2 older $39.99 904 70% 27k $1.1M (exactly $1,084,529) Nacon Studio Ghent
NUTS older $24.99 884 88% 27k $663k (exactly $662,735) Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi
FEROCIOUS $24.99 742 63% 22k $556k (exactly $556,277) OMYOG
Project L33T: Founders Edition $19.99 525 47% 16k $315k (exactly $314,842) Targetpoint Interactive, Holmgard Games
Fish Hunters: Most Lethal Fishing Simulator 🐟 $9.99 562 58% 17k $168k (exactly $168,431) Pmdk23
Hachishakusama | 八尺様がいた夏休み $7.44 388 94% 12k $87k (exactly $86,602) Fukachi World
No Man's Home · EA $9.99 268 86% 8.0k $80k (exactly $80,320) radrunner
Iridio $19.99 87 86% 2.6k $52k (exactly $52,174) KR Games
Hoofobia $6.99 178 68% 5.3k $37k (exactly $37,327) Deathyell Games
MIRO $14.99 32 100% 960 $14k (exactly $14,390) Lost Saved Data_

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.