Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Naval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval FPS?

FPS + Naval

Only 4 developers shipped a Naval FPS in the last 2 years. Over 4 years, 10 did: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $780 against a market of $1.5k. 16 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 16 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Naval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for FPS + Naval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $674 (exactly $674)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 25% $43k (exactly $43,386)
Top 5% $3.8M (exactly $3,759,942)
Developers, 4 yr 10
Released games 27
Announced 16
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Naval
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 4 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 366,517 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 4 years by share: 3 in 10 under $680, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $43k, 1 in 20 over $3.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $680. 16 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition 2020 · $386M Holdfast: Nations At War 2020 · $16M Azur Lane Crosswave 2020 · $7.8M Blazing Sails 2023 · $3.8M Carrier Command: Gaea Mission 2012 · $797k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition older $39.99 322,072 88% 9.7M $386M (exactly $386,389,778) Rare Ltd
Holdfast: Nations At War older $19.99 26,624 90% 799k $16M (exactly $15,966,413) Anvil Game Studios
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Blazing Sails older $14.99 8,361 87% 251k $3.8M (exactly $3,759,942) Get Up Games, Iceberg Interactive
Carrier Command: Gaea Mission older $32.99 805 51% 24k $797k (exactly $796,708) Bohemia Interactive
Beach Invasion 1944 older $9.99 1,038 84% 31k $311k (exactly $311,089) AIx2 Games
Buccaneers! older $17.99 386 82% 12k $208k (exactly $208,324) Skyward Digital
Out of Reach: Treasure Royale older $14.99 337 58% 10k $152k (exactly $151,549) Space Boat Studios
Xenus 2. White gold. older $14.99 268 76% 8.0k $121k (exactly $120,520) Deep Shadows
Battlewake older $29.99 89 67% 2.7k $80k (exactly $80,073) Survios
Crabmeat $7.99 181 86% 5.4k $43k (exactly $43,386) Nicholas McDonnell, Mitchell Pasmans
Ultra Fishing $12.99 2 50% 60 $779 (exactly $779) Uğur ÇELİK
Nightmariners $4.49 5 80% 150 $674 (exactly $674) Ocean's Call Studios
Tropical Trouble $15.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) rec studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.