Do I ship it?

GamesFPSFPS + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater FPS?

FPS + Underwater

Only 6 developers shipped an Underwater FPS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Abyssus, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×14 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $2.8k against a market of $1.5k. 27 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 27 announced, ×14 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for FPS + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $959 (exactly $959)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,844)
Top 25% $83k (exactly $83,006)
Top 5% $3.8M (exactly $3,758,996)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 39
Announced 27
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 169,608 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $83k, 1 in 20 over $3.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×14 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BioShock™ Remastered older $19.99 52,500 83% 1.6M $31M (exactly $31,484,250) 2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel… (2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel, Feral Interactive (Mac))
BioShock™ older $19.99 25,188 93% 756k $15M (exactly $15,105,244) 2K Boston, 2K Australia
BioShock™ 2 Remastered older $19.99 24,316 72% 729k $15M (exactly $14,582,305) 2K Marin, 2K China, Digital Extremes, 2… (2K Marin, 2K China, Digital Extremes, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel, Feral Interactive (Mac))
Depth older $19.99 23,590 89% 708k $14M (exactly $14,146,923) Ammobox Studios
Sunkenland · EA older $19.99 20,536 80% 616k $12M (exactly $12,315,439) Vector3 Studio
BioShock® 2 older $19.99 11,467 88% 344k $6.9M (exactly $6,876,760) 2K Marin, 2K China, Digital Extremes, 2… (2K Marin, 2K China, Digital Extremes, 2K Australia)
Abyssus $24.99 5,014 84% 150k $3.8M (exactly $3,758,996) DoubleMoose Games
Northern Journey older $11.99 3,500 96% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,258,950) Slid Studio
Death in the Water 2 older $14.99 1,734 83% 52k $780k (exactly $779,780) Lighthouse Games Studio
The Shore older $11.99 1,763 70% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) Ares Dragonis
Away From Life · EA $12.99 213 66% 6.4k $83k (exactly $83,006) Cursor Games
Submeris $4.99 19 57% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) OxygenStudio
Snapshot Aquarium · EA $5.99 7 100% 210 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) Octoponx
Spearfishing Simulator $7.99 4 50% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Riv3r
Diving Focus · EA $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) SUDT Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.