Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western FPS?

FPS + Western

Of 34 developers who shipped a Western FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $780, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300. 52 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper, while revenue is down 90% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 52 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $299 → $298 → $19k → $2.7k → $120 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $779 (exactly $779)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,288)
Top 5% $889k (exactly $888,755)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 96
Announced 52
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Action-Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 1990's, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 34,055 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $780, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $880k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B Hunt: Showdown 1896 2019 · $192M Fallout: New Vegas 2010 · $63M Far Far West 2026 · EA · $19M War of Rights 2018 · EA · $12M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Red Dead Redemption 2 older $59.99 846,270 92% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) Rockstar Games
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
Fallout: New Vegas older $9.99 211,748 95% 6.4M $63M (exactly $63,460,876) Obsidian Entertainment
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
War of Rights · EA older $29.99 13,441 88% 403k $12M (exactly $12,092,868) Campfire Games
Call of Juarez: Gunslinger older $14.99 20,869 94% 626k $9.4M (exactly $9,384,789) Techland
Blood West older $24.99 6,132 90% 184k $4.6M (exactly $4,597,160) Hyperstrange
This Land Is My Land older $29.99 4,248 68% 127k $3.8M (exactly $3,821,926) Game-Labs
Call of Juarez: Bound in Blood older $9.99 4,393 86% 132k $1.3M (exactly $1,316,582) Techland
Call of Juarez older $9.99 3,732 81% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,118,480) Techland
Mohrta $19.99 1,482 91% 44k $889k (exactly $888,755) Scumhead, Osiol
Soulslinger: Envoy of Death $19.99 472 63% 14k $283k (exactly $283,058) Elder Games
Outlaws + Handful of Missions: Remaster $29.99 230 93% 6.9k $207k (exactly $206,931) LucasArts, Nightdive Studios
Golden Chambers · EA $19.99 195 80% 5.9k $117k (exactly $116,941) Mr. Pink
I Want to Believe $16.99 47 80% 1.4k $24k (exactly $23,956) Fang's Lab
Vendetta Forever $19.99 34 76% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) Meatspace Interactive
Wild West : The Last Cowboy $8.99 69 100% 2.1k $19k (exactly $18,609) DMONG Co., Ltd.
Saloonery $9.99 41 97% 1.2k $12k (exactly $12,288) Bow Tie Cat Studios
Brooks in Wild West $11.99 27 74% 810 $9.7k (exactly $9,712) PiggyNose Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.