Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Music

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Music FPS?

FPS + Music

Only 11 developers shipped a Music FPS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rock Star Life Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240. Revenue is down 80% on the market, with 13 games announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Music
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $119 → $2.3k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Music: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 5% $187k (exactly $186,601)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 50
Announced 13
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Music
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 85% positive over 662 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $450, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

A Dance of Fire and Ice 2019 · $14M Metal: Hellsinger 2022 · $13M BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE 2020 · $5.8M In Sound Mind 2021 · $5.7M Pistol Whip 2019 · $3.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
A Dance of Fire and Ice older $5.99 78,688 94% 2.4M $14M (exactly $14,140,234) 7th Beat Games
Metal: Hellsinger older $29.99 13,989 96% 420k $13M (exactly $12,585,903) The Outsiders
BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE older $19.99 9,598 91% 288k $5.8M (exactly $5,755,921) Awe Interactive
In Sound Mind older $34.99 5,467 95% 164k $5.7M (exactly $5,738,710) We Create Stuff
Pistol Whip older $29.99 3,586 94% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,226,324) Cloudhead Games Ltd.
ROBOBEAT older $19.99 1,708 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,024,288) Simon Fredholm
MUSYNX older $3.99 6,274 89% 188k $751k (exactly $750,998) I-Inferno
Hatsune Miku VR older $24.99 616 72% 18k $462k (exactly $461,815) Crypton Future Media
Rock Star Life Simulator $12.49 498 85% 15k $187k (exactly $186,601) HOGO Games
Beat Aim - Rhythm FPS Trainer · EA older $14.99 210 89% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Kamyker
Sex Beats $9.99 62 77% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,581) Naku Kinoko
Erotic Rhythm $3.99 61 90% 1.8k $7.3k (exactly $7,302) Naku Kinoko
Unpatterned Cut $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Vnow Games
Smasher $14.99 7 85% 210 $3.1k (exactly $3,148) Smasher Team, Bear Head Studio
Jaws of Hell $14.99 3 66% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) Starving Lama Games
AxeSlinger $2.99 5 100% 150 $449 (exactly $449) StoneDeadShred
StreetSync $0.99 10 100% 300 $297 (exactly $297) Tyler L
Reality Rifts $3.99 2 50% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Infinity Requiem Studio
BEATSHIFT ARENA · EA $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Bondigi Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.